Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 10 Predictions
If you haven’t played the Final One Standing game yet, you can enter this week’s new jackpot by 3pm on Saturday.
Arsenal
Turf Moor has long been a happy hunting ground for The Gunners, who are unbeaten in their last eleven league meetings there, a run stretching all the way back to 1973.
The Clarets’ attacking struggles against Arsenal are well documented – just nine goals in their 18 Premier League encounters – and the only time in recent history they have managed more than a single goal was a Cup match back in 2008 (2-0). Despite their impressive home form, it’s hard to see any other outcome than a win for Mikel Arteta’s men.
Arsenal are ruthless against newly promoted teams, winning twenty-three of their last 24 matchups. And this season, they look laser-focused with their sights set firmly on a Premier League title.
Early-season success(!) has been built on a solid defensive unit, only three goals conceded, and they arrive at Burnley on the back of an eight-game winning streak, with no goals against in six across all competitions.
Burnley, on the other hand, despite a decent start, are finding it tough dining at the top table. The side sits bottom for xG (6.89), although the caveat here is that they are the league’s biggest overperformers (12). At home, only West Ham has a lower xG per 90 (0.61), and given the Gunners’ defensive fortitude, another clean sheet looks to be on the cards.
At the opposite end, Burnley have managed two shutouts, against Sunderland and Leeds United, while Forest and Liverpool struggled to break through the Clarets’ backline at Turf Moor. However, overall, they are averaging almost two goals against (17) this season, with the highest xG conceded of any side (17.8).
After making 10 changes in the Carabao Cup, Arteta is expected to revert to a more familiar-looking lineup, which carries a threat from all over the pitch.
Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are both ranked in the top three among defenders for touches in the opposition penalty area and expected goal involvement (xGI), while the latter leads the table for shots attempted by a defender.
Burnley will do very, very well to slow down the Arsenal juggernaut…
Fulham
Two struggling sides meet at Craven Cottage in what could be politely described as a low-quality affair. Fulham have lost four consecutive Premier League matches – the longest active losing streak in the league – whereas Wolves remain winless after nine matches played.
Both sides have been underwhelming in attack, with very little separating them in terms of expected goals (9.16 v 9.44) and Shots (94 v 97)…
And following the Carabao Cup midweek, Raul Jimenez is in danger of joining teammate Rodrigo Muniz in the treatment room, leaving Marco Silva without a recognised, experienced striker. This doesn’t bode well for a Fulham side that sits in the Bottom Three for several attacking metrics at home.
For Wolves, their output on the road has been abysmal: Shots – 39 (20th), Big Chances – 2 (joint 20th), xG – 2.95 (17th), and Key Passes – 24 (19th). But these numbers may go some way to explaining their defensive statistics.
Overall, the numbers again are relatively evenly matched – Shots conceded (105-v-107) – but away from Molineux, only Newcastle and Arsenal have a better xG Conceded (4.41). However, home advantage is key for me, and Fulham, who are well fancied at 51 per cent, could pile even more misery on manager Vitor Pereira.
Newcastle United
The London Stadium has never truly felt like home for the Hammers, and history suggests that trend won’t change this weekend.
West Ham have managed just two wins in their previous 12 league encounters with Newcastle, and both of those matches took place at St James’ Park. Meanwhile, the travelling Magpies are unbeaten in their last six visits, with four wins and two draws.
This fixture arrives at a difficult moment for West Ham and for new manager Nuno Espirito Santo. With just four points from nine games, the side is enduring its worst-ever Premier League start, and already, they sit four points adrift of safety.
Newcastle haven’t hit full stride yet, but recent performances suggest a changing of the tides, and they arrive on the back of three wins (all competitions), which include a midweek Carabao Cup victory over Tottenham.
On the road, Newcastle have scored just once, at Brighton in a 2-1 loss, but a trip to the league’s leakiest defence could be just the tonic they need. Nick Woltemade has been a revelation since his arrival – his 0.75 goals per 90 ranks third in the league, and his 0.75 xGI/90 places him comfortably in the Top 10.
With only one clean sheet all season, at Forest, and the most goals against (20), plus an average of three goals against at home (20th), Eddie Howe will feel this weekend will provide an excellent opportunity to move back into the top half of the table.
Defensively, only Arsenal can better the Magpies’ number of clean sheets (5), non-penalty xG Conceded (7.5), and Big Chances Conceded (10). So, it should be an easy day at the office for the Newcastle defence, who face a West Ham attack that has mustered only seven goals.
They’re among the lowest for xG (7.66), Shots (85), Touches in the Opposition Box (156), coupled with only four fast breaks across the opening nine game weeks.
Even at 55%, I feel the data doesn’t do Newcastle justice, who must fancy their chances of all three points.
Sunderland
David Moyes deserves all the accolades for stabilising Everton this season. Still, his side faces a tough test against a newly promoted Sunderland team that has taken the Premier League by storm.
At the Stadium of Light, the Black Cats have been outstanding, boasting the fourth-best xG conceded (3.3) with two clean sheets and only two goals conceded. This brilliant start is a testament to a summer of shrewd investment, with a host of top-quality acquisitions hitting the ground running.
Everton haven’t travelled well thus far, but away fixtures in 2025/26 have already taken them to The Etihad and Anfield.
The opening weekend loss to Leeds is probably the game that sticks in the throat, and following back-to-back defeats post-October international break, Everton need to get on track again, as this run threatens to take the shine off a promising start.
But Régis Le Bris has done well to silence early-season sceptics, propelling Sunderland into fourth place, and even for a short while, second top of the table.
While Arsenal may be the Kings of the Set-piece – nine goals already – Sunderland creates over 43% of their xG from dead-ball situations, and this could be their best avenue for a narrow win.
