Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 15 Predictions
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest got the job done for more than half the remaining players in our £500k Final One Standing Jackpot.
However, if you were one of the players who backed Wolves to get their first win of the campaign… we have a new jackpot starting!
Arsenal
On the face of it, this looks a hard match to call as both sides have kicked up a gear, and this is an excellent fixture to kick off this latest round of fixtures… Arsenal continue to push teams aside, while Villa have won eight of their last nine league games, with their only defeat coming at Anfield.
Mikel Arteta was able to rotate in their midweek win over Brentford, with the likes of Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber and Eberechi Eze all starting on the bench. Arsenal will also hope to have Leandro Trossard and William Saliba back in contention, although there are question marks over Cristhian Mosquera and Declan Rice, with none of the long-term absentees poised for a return.
For Villa, Youri Tielemans, Lucas Digne and Emi Buendia were among those rested. At the same time, former Arsenal goalkeeper Emi Martinez was a late withdrawal due to a back complaint, and his availability remains questionable.
Villa Park is a fortress, and since losing to their visitors at the beginning of 2024-25, the Claret and Blues have lost just one of their subsequent 25 Premier League games. However, the Arsenal record is equally formidable, with the club tasting defeat only once in 21 league matches on the road. And the Gunners are by far the best team in the Premier League this season.
Don’t be surprised to see an eight-point lead at the top-of-the-table once the whistle has blown in the early game.
Newcastle United
Newcastle have had the upper hand recently, winning six straight in the league, and it has been almost 50 years since the Clarets took the points on Tyneside.
A full midweek slate means heavy rotation is a real threat, but Harvey Barnes’ form almost makes him undroppable. Since returning to the side in Gameweek 11, Barnes has been a revelation, scoring three in four, and his attacking numbers (per 90) underline this resurgence: 1.81 shots on target (3rd), 1.51 Big Chances (2nd), and 0.8 expected goal involvement (5th)… And against a Burnley side that often leaves significant gaps defensively, Barnes looks primed for another productive outing.
Away from Turf Moor, the Clarets’ record remains deeply concerning. They sit joint-second worst in the Premier League, with just one win and six losses. Their 21 goals conceded are the most in the division, highlighting their defensive struggles, while their xGoal Difference (-11.4) is almost double that of every other team except Leeds and Wolves.
Therefore, Newcastle are strongly fancied (70%), and given the trajectory of both sides, it is difficult to make a case against them.
Crystal Palace
Historically, there is very little to separate the two sides. Across 14 top-flight meetings, Fulham have won four, Palace five, with the remaining matches ending level. Even a narrowing of the sample size suggests that these fixtures are usually tight, low-margin games decided by fine details rather than a single dominant theme.
But the narrative shifts significantly when current-season data is placed under the microscope. The Eagles arrive at Craven Cottage sitting fifth in the table, and their underlying metrics support this headline position.
Palace have built a solid platform off the ball – structurally disciplined, difficult to break down, and increasingly efficient in how they transition. Their consistency in chance creation (6th) — despite modest finishing returns — is one of the reasons their statistical profile remains so strong.
Away from Selhurst Park, the Eagles have been excellent, ranking joint-third in the Premier League on the road (W4, D1, L2), and the numbers match the eye test. Palace limits opposition entries into key zones effectively – only four goals conceded and four clean sheets earned – while tending to create higher-quality opportunities on the counter.
Fulham, on the other hand, have been more pragmatic at Craven Cottage. Marco Silva has clearly adopted a more defensive approach, reflected in their 1.1 expected goals conceded per 90 (xGC) — top-half defensive output – although this is tempered by a 1.21 xG per 90, which is worse than Wolves!
Recent results have been decent. However, there has been an overperformance, almost doubling their expected points tally, and we know over time, this is simply not sustainable. The Cottagers’ goals output in particular is significantly better than the metrics indicate – 7 goals from 3.81 xG – and only five Big Chances Created (19th).
In contrast, Palace are among the league’s biggest underperformers this season, with almost six fewer goals than predicted. Jean-Phillipe Mateta is the biggest culprit, hitting the net just seven times from 19 Big Chances (9.42 xG).
There isn’t much between the two in terms of odds, but the projected win probability (40%) gives the Eagles a strong chance of taking all three points.
Nottingham Forest
The Toffees have enjoyed this fixture in recent seasons, taking three wins from the last four league meetings, with clean sheets in each of those victories.
And while Everton are progressing nicely under David Moyes – some strong performances, combined with the occasional lapse – Forest, under the stewardship of Sean Dyche, are moving away from the drop zone after a difficult start.
The midfield is where this game could be won, and Forest appears to have an edge. Omari Hutchinson has flourished since coming in from the cold, contributing 4 Goal Involvements and 3 Big Chances Created from only one start in four games. Morgan Gibbs-White has benefited from having his shackles cut, while Elliott Anderson’s form has taken him to the cusp of a World Cup selection.
But in Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Everton have two players quietly emerging as standout performers. Grealish admits he ‘loves the manager to pieces’ while Dewsbury-Hall has added an end product to his game, scoring two in two, and providing a more direct threat in advanced midfield positions. If Everton are to assert their control centrally, both players will be pivotal.
This is a tough game to call, but I like the underlying numbers since mid-October… Forest have conceded fewer (7), scored more (9), and posted a better xG (8.01). And as more time goes by, the better the team will become…
