Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 20 Predictions
The Premier League returns with another decisive weekend for Final One Standing.
Fine margins, tricky fixtures and form swings make selection critical as the field narrows. One wrong call could end your run — choose wisely, protect your life, and stay standing!
Brighton and Hove Albion
The Seagulls are back at the Amex Stadium and still searching for a way to convert strong underlying numbers into results. Fabian Hurzeler’s side are winless since late November, a run stretching six Premier League matches, despite ranking ninth by OPTA for expected points.
Historically, this fixture favours Brighton, who have lost just one of their last eight league meetings with Burnley, and the gap between the sides has widened further this season. At home, the Seagulls have been relatively resilient, suffering just one home defeat all campaign, although their defensive reliability remains an issue.
From a data perspective, Brighton have kept only two home clean sheets, ranking in the bottom half for xG conceded and shots allowed in the box. Their attacking output has often been enough to mask these flaws, but game management continues to cost them points.
Burnley arrive in bleak form. Scott Parker’s side have collected just four points on the road – only Wolves have a worse record – conceding 24 goals across nine matches, numbers that place the side 19th overall (Bournemouth, 29, are bottom). Burnley have taken only two points from a possible thirty, and the Clarets have conceded more first-half goals than any other Premier League side, suggesting early pressure could prove decisive.
Squad management is key around a demanding schedule, with rotation likely, particularly out wide, with Kaoru Mitoma name-checked for a potential start. Yankuba Minteh could also be fit, despite limping off last time out.
The Burnley squad is beginning to look stretched, with ten players listed as potential absentees due to injury and the Africa Cup of Nations.
OPTA assigns Brighton a hefty 67.5% chance of victory, and the data strongly supports the home win…
Arsenal
The Gunners arrive on the south coast buoyed by a statement win over Aston Villa, a performance that highlighted their ability to dominate despite the absence of Declan Rice…
Bournemouth’s decline has been steep, returning only one win in 13 matches. The Cherries sit joint-bottom for goals conceded over the last six games (12), and a summer of defensive turmoil looks to be biting back, with only one clean sheet in ten.
History heavily favours Arsenal, who have failed to score just once in 16 Premier League encounters, and the contrast in current form is stark. Bournemouth are winless in 10, while current table toppers Arsenal have tasted defeat only once in 16 league fixtures.
The Gunners’ away form offers no relief for the hosts, with Mikel Arteta’s side top for points per game, both home and away, underlining their consistency regardless of venue. There has also been the timely return from injury of several key players, including Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Kai Havertz, who are back amongst the ranks to help manage the load without a drop-off in performance during this crucial period.
Leandro Trossard continues to fly under the radar and remains one to monitor. With nine goal involvements already (5G, 4A), only Bukayo Saka has more, and he continues to deliver despite uncertainty over his long-term role.
Expect no let-up from Arsenal, who will look to extend their lead to seven points on Saturday, as title rivals Manchester City play 24 hours later.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves may still be searching for their first three points of the season, but I saw enough against Manchester United to suggest Rob Edwards’ side have a genuine opportunity to claim a statement win against West Ham.
Despite recent frustrations, Wolves’ performances at Molineux have been more competitive than results imply. They rank above Tottenham, Burnley and Sunderland for xG generated, although they do lack a clinical edge with the fewest goals (7) in front of their fans.
But West Ham aren’t much better. One point against Brighton was their first in almost a month, and it’s been nearly two months since the Hammers last won – make that four months – away from the London Stadium.
Clean sheets seem unlikely – West Ham (1) and Wolves (0) rank 19th and 20th respectively, increasing the probability of an open contest with chances at both ends. These sides are struggling, and the first goal will be key to building confidence.
Wolves are missing some key players, but Andre is back after serving a ban, and Santiago Bueno could return to bolster the squad. West Ham remain relatively injury-free, but there is a slight concern over defensive lynchpin Jean-Clair Todibo. Team news will be pivotal, and whether Nuno decides to deploy Callum Wilson in attack, although the schedule and quick turnaround may see his minutes managed.
Jarrod Bowen remains central to the Hammers’ success, and he loves to score against Wolves – he has more goals against them than any other top-flight opponent – and he arrives in form with four goal involvements in his last six matches.
That said, I’m expecting Wolves to kick off the New Year with a win and use the momentum of the draw at Old Trafford to give them three points.
Aston Villa
The heavy defeat to Arsenal has stalled any potential title talk, but Villa Park remains a fortress, and I’m expecting the side to bounce back. The Villains have won ten consecutive home matches across all competitions, reinforcing their status as one of the league’s most formidable sides on home turf.
Forest form has dipped of late, just one win in five, and away from the City Ground, their record continues to undermine any progress under Sean Dyche, although there was a three-nil win at Anfield in November. And they will make Villa work for the win. Forest rank 7th for xG conceded on the road, 9th for big chances conceded, and have allowed just six goals in 9 away matches, third-best.
However, their problems lie further up the pitch, with only 6.33 xG generated, a metric that places them bottom of the table. Forest also sit 20th for Big Chances Created (5) – and no team has failed to score in more matches this season.
This will be a true test of Villa’s credentials and their quest for a Champions League place. While OPTA data indicates a fairly routine day at the office (67.5% chance of victory), Forest’s attacking limitations will be a factor, and this game profiles a controlled home win rather than a high-scoring affair.
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