Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 21 Predictions

2 days ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

The margins are narrowing after a busy festive period, with underlying data helping to bring focus beneath the results.

Form and fixture give context, but it’s the small details that count — injuries, minutes, momentum — that could determine who survives and who falls in Final One Standing.

Nottingham Forest

This fixture has clear implications at the bottom end of the Premier League table, as two relegation-threatened sides meet in what increasingly feels like a defining moment in their respective seasons. While both arrive with poor recent results, the underlying indicators suggest the trajectories of these teams are moving in different directions.

On paper, Forest’s away record makes uncomfortable reading – they are averaging just 0.8 points per game on the road in 2025/26, relegation–level returns.

However, context matters, and Sean Dyche will see this as the perfect opportunity to end a run of four successive defeats. Only Wolves have a worse home record than West Ham, and it’s been almost two months since their last victory at the London Stadium.

Their loss to Fulham in Gameweek 18 meant they equalled a club record of 11 league losses in a calendar year. Performances have lacked cohesion, and since taking charge in September, Nuno has managed just two wins, losing 50 per cent of his matches.

Over the last seven games, only Burnley have collected fewer points, and only Bournemouth have conceded more. The 3–0 defeat to Wolves on Saturday — their opponent’s first league win of the season — was particularly damaging.

By contrast, Forest’s recent run tells a more nuanced story. Results alone suggest they are another side sliding towards danger, but the underlying data points to a team performing better than outcomes imply. A key factor in the side’s improvement has been the defensive work undertaken since Dyche took over.

Before his arrival, Forest ranked among the league’s worst for chance prevention, averaging 1.88 goals conceded per 90, whilst posting the second-highest expected goals conceded figure in the division. Since the change, that profile has shifted markedly.

Forest now allow just 1.2 xG per 90, the fifth-best return in the league, while conceding 1.5 goals per game. The metrics reflect better duel success and a more compact defensive block, particularly in central areas.

This fixture, therefore, represents an excellent opportunity for Forest to finally align performances with results. West Ham are struggling for identity and confidence, and a controlled away performance could serve as a catalyst for the second half of the season.

Everton

The Toffees will be looking to bounce back from the heavy home defeat to Brentford. But Wolves are not the pushover they once were this season, and a win on Saturday will have provided a much-needed confidence boost.

However, while three points offered some respite, it has done little to address long-standing issues, particularly away from Molineux, where the side have managed 2 points from a possible 30.

As with the game against West Ham, the first goal will be crucial, and Wolves have conceded the opener in seven consecutive away fixtures, forcing them into reactive rather than proactive football.

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From a tactical standpoint, David Moyes has consistently demonstrated an ability to manage games against sides that struggle defensively in transition, and he has won both previous managerial meetings with Rob Edwards. Control of territory, early pressure, and set-piece efficiency are likely to feature prominently in the Toffees’ approach.

Everton’s creative output continues to be driven by Jack Grealish, who remains one of the most productive chance creators in the league. His six assists place him within reach of Andrei Kanchelskis’ club record, while his wider metrics underline sustained influence: 36 key passes, 3.31 expected assists, and 218 final-third passes.

Wolves are yet to record an away clean sheet, and while I believe Rob Edwards’ side will pick up more points, avoiding any unwanted Premier League records, the hosts could edge this one.

Arsenal

Liverpool’s recent unbeaten run requires qualification. While an eight-game sequence without defeat has inflated perceptions, it includes only four wins, and two of those came against West Ham and Wolves, while Spurs and Brighton weren’t in great form.

Arsenal, on the other hand, and despite injuries to key personnel, have demonstrated greater consistency this term. Since their narrow defeat to Liverpool earlier in the season – a game decided by a spectacular Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick – the Gunners have built a six-point lead at the top of the table.

Meanwhile, the Reds have dropped off considerably, and they now languish in fourth spot, 14 points adrift of the leaders.

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Heading into this, Arsenal hold the balance of power, with an unbeaten home record that includes seven straight wins. Central to this success is Bukayo Saka, whose influence has grown steadily since returning from injury.

He has scored in each of his last three home league games against Liverpool, and he arrives in strong form: 4.3 xGI over the previous eight Gameweeks, 19 key passes, four big chances created, with eight goal involvements (7A + 1G). The acquisition of Noni Madueke has allowed Mikel Arteta to manage Saka’s minutes, reducing his physical load and optimising his game time.

Arsenal have a 61.5% chance of victory (OPTA), reflecting both home form and player availability, with Alexander Isak sidelined and Hugo Ekitike a fitness doubt for the visitors.

Brentford

The Bees and Sunderland rank fourth and fifth, respectively, at home this season, underlining their effectiveness in familiar surroundings.

However, on the road, the Black Cats have won only twice, and Brentford’s broader profile gives them the edge, having taken 34 from a possible 39 points against newly promoted sides. They are also unbeaten in their last five league matches, including six at the Gtech Stadium, with wins over Liverpool, Newcastle and Bournemouth.

Igor Thiago ended a mini-drought in emphatic style at the weekend, scoring a hat-trick, and his 14 goals this term means only Erling Haaland (19) has returned more. It also leaves him one behind the Premier League record for a Brazilian (15), which is currently tied by Roberto Firmino and Matheus Cunha.

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Thiago is ranked amongst Europe’s elite for attacking output: a 52.6% shots-on-target ratio (Top 1%) and 0.24 goals per shot, making him one of the continent’s most clinical forwards.

Overall, the Black Cats’ defensive structure has largely held up: 19 goals conceded (3rd) and seven clean sheets (5th). But away from home, the numbers highlight a potential vulnerability: 168 shots conceded (19th) and 11 shots in the box per 90 (17th), with their hosts’ considerable underperformance masking the metrics.

With several players still at the Africa Cup of Nations, this could be a game too far for Sunderland following a heavy festive schedule for a squad that has made minimal changes.