Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 23 Predictions

2 hours ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

With margins tightening and variance increasing as the season progresses, Final One Standing decisions are becoming increasingly unforgiving.

This game week presents a blend of dominant historical trends, evolving team news, and key underlying data shifts that could define survival.

Chelsea

Crystal Palace head into this fixture under mounting pressure, with no wins in 2026 and a manager who feels ‘abandoned’ following the sale of their captain, Marc Guéhi, the third high-profile departure from Selhurst Park in recent times.

Palace are winless in their previous 16 Premier League meetings with Chelsea and arrive without a victory in 10 matches across all competitions. Performance levels have dropped sharply, and results have followed.

The Eagles’ early-season data suggested a side capable of competing for the European places, but sustained underperformance has triggered a significant regression. Off-field uncertainty has compounded on-pitch issues, along with Oliver Glasner, leading goal scorer Jean-Philippe Mateta has also expressed his desire to leave the club.

From a team news perspective, Palace could be boosted by the return of Daniel Munoz, who rejoined the group in training last week.

However, after almost two months out, a return to pre-injury performance levels may take a little time. Meanwhile, Africa Cup of Nations winner, Ismailia Sarr, is in line for a return after helping Senegal lift the trophy. Eddie Nketiah faces a late fitness test…

Chelsea arrive at Selhurst Park under new leadership, with Liam Rosenior still in the early phases of implementing his tactical framework.

While it is premature to draw firm conclusions, the Blues’ underlying numbers remain competitive, and Opta make the visitors slight favourites (40.1%).

Cole Palmer ‘could’ start on Sunday despite missing out in the Champions League due to a minor thigh issue. But an injury-disrupted campaign has limited the midfielder to just four 90-minute appearances, and Palmer’s output has dipped from 0.75 xGI per 90 in 2024-25 to 0.46 xGI, although a goal against Brentford (GW22) hopefully signals an upturn… and this fixture offers a potential platform to rebuild rhythm and sharpness.

Newcastle United

The Magpies’ home form continues to underpin their season, and this weekend Newcastle will be hoping to extend that run against a Villa side who have not won at St James’ Park since 2005.

Back-to- back home wins in the league have restored momentum despite an otherwise inconsistent campaign. The side remains difficult to break down on Tyneside, and Eddie Howe will be looking for another big performance to back up their win over PSV midweek.

For Villa, Unai Emery has growing concerns, particularly in attack, and despite the side ranking fifth for expected goals over the last five gameweeks, Villa have failed to score in their last two matches and are converting just 1.2 goals per 90 from an xG of 1.8. This mirrors the issues seen earlier in the season, when Villa blanked in their opening four league games.

Morgan Rogers recent form encapsulates the Villains’ inefficiency in front of goal. Since Christmas, he has taken 13 shots (4 from outside the box) without scoring and has underperformed his xG by 1.28 across the last four gameweeks.

For Newcastle, Bruno Guimarães’ availability will be key. The Brazilian has not missed a game in the league through injury since 2022, but the sight of their captain limping off midweek is a concern. The Magpies’ win ratio drops to around 24% without Bruno (from 55%), and his form this season, particularly at home, has been excellent: 0.63 goal involvements per 90 with seven goals and two assists.

Villa have just one clean sheet in nine games and have conceded 14 goals during that run… Newcastle will look to make it three on the bounce to help reel in their Champions League qualification rivals.

Liverpool

The Reds will look to maintain their strong record against Bournemouth, having gone unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League meetings, winning twelve. The Cherries have conceded 52 goals in 17 league encounters with the Reds, underlining the historical imbalance in this fixture.

While Liverpool have drawn four of their last five league fixtures, performances have stabilised. Defensive structure and control in possession has improved, and the data supports their position as favourites, with a 43.7% likelihood of an away win.

The Cherries’ problems are largely defensive. They have conceded 21.35 xG across their last 13 matches, the fifth-highest figure in the league, with Djordje Petrović posting a -5.9 xG prevented, the lowest among all Premier League goalkeepers this season.

This could be a key opportunity for Hugo Ekitiké, who continues to find promising positions. Despite generating 1.69 xG from 10 shots in his last two matches, he has failed to score… But facing one of the league’s most vulnerable defences, this fixture presents a clear chance to convert underlying performance into tangible returns.

Manchester City

City will be looking to arrest a recent dip in results, having recorded only two wins from their last seven competitive matches in 2026 and no victories in four league games.

Defensive injuries have contributed significantly, though the arrival of Marc Guéhi should add stability to a back line missing John Stones, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol.

History heavily favours City. They have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Wolves, and Opta rates them as the strongest favourites of the game week, assigning a 77% probability of victory.

Wolves, however, arrive in improved shape. After a difficult start to the season, their defensive numbers have tightened considerably. They are unbeaten in four matches, with two clean sheets, and have reduced their xG conceded from 1.38 per 90 across the season to 0.73 in this recent run.

Ahead of the game, the key narrative revolves around Erling Haaland, who has failed to score from open play in eight games. The striker is currently underperforming his xG, a rare occurrence, which Pep Guardiola has attributed to fatigue.

However, he did play 90 minutes midweek and was even utilised in the FA Cup against lowly Exeter. But, Haaland does like a goal against Wolves – ten in his career, the most of any opponent – and the metrics suggest a return to form, with an 85% likelihood of a goal involvement.

Despite Wolves’ defensive improvement, this fixture profiles as an ideal opportunity for City to reassert dominance and keep the pressure on leaders Arsenal.