Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 25 Predictions

1 hour ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

Final One Standing returns this weekend, and one bad decision can end it all.

Pick one Premier League winner each week, but only once per team across each game. Get it right, stay alive. Get it wrong, and your campaign is over…

Brighton and Hove Albion

The Seagulls’ recent record against Crystal Palace offers little encouragement on the surface, with just two wins from their last 13 meetings.

However, context suggests this iteration of the fixture may follow a different pattern. Palace arrive on the south coast with significant issues both on and off the pitch, while Brighton’s underlying performance metrics at the Amex Stadium remain strong despite inconsistent results.

A difficult transfer window has disrupted the Eagles’ preparations. Jean-Philippe Mateta‘s proposed move away from the club collapsed at the last minute, and his ongoing knee injury further limits Oliver Glasner’s options in attack.

A deadline-day attempt to bring in Dwight McNeil also failed due to administrative issues, leaving Palace short of depth in wide areas. Glasner remains in post, but the lack of clarity surrounding his position has coincided with a sustained downturn in results.

Palace are now without a win in 12 matches across all competitions, and since the start of December, they rank among the league’s poorest sides for points accumulated.

Their attacking numbers over that period are broadly mid-table, generating more than 15 expected goals, yet they have scored only eight times. Meaning the side is around seven goals worse off, which highlights a team struggling to convert chances.

Brighton’s form has also been inconsistent, and the side hasn’t won back-to-back games since November. With just one victory in eleven, the pressure is beginning to increase, and game management remains an area of concern.

The side has failed to win in any of their previous three matches despite taking the lead, continuing a pattern of dropped points from winning positions. Nevertheless, their overall performance data aligns closely with expectations, a notable contrast to Palace.

Home form remains a significant positive for Brighton. They have lost just two of their last 20 Premier League games at the Amex – once in 2025/26 – and only Liverpool and Arsenal have recorded fewer home defeats over the past two seasons.

Opta’s projections (51.5%) reflect that strength and rate Brighton as clear favourites. Given Palace’s ongoing problems, the balance of probability favours the hosts.

Liverpool

The Reds’ meeting with Manchester City is shaped by a familiar theme: Anfield advantage. Liverpool have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League home games against City, underlining the enormity of the task facing the visitors.

While both sides arrive with mixed fortunes, Liverpool’s trajectory has been upward since the early part of the campaign.

After a difficult opening to the season, Liverpool have lost just once in the league since Gameweek 13. At the same time, the Citizens’ recent results have just about kept them in touch with the leaders, Arsenal.

Over the previous five league matches, both sides have collected six points, and a win for the hosts would close the gap to five, increasing the significance of small margins in this fixture.

Hugo Ekitike has emerged as a key contributor, particularly in the absence of the injured Alexander Isak. The striker is averaging a goal involvement every 112 minutes, and his efficiency has been among the best in the division.

Since Gameweek 15, Ekitike’s output per 90 has exceeded that of Erling Haaland, and only Bruno Fernandes is better. His ability to impact games adds an important dynamic to Liverpool’s attacking options, particularly in home fixtures.

Opta make Liverpool narrow favourites (43%), and while this remains a finely balanced contest, home advantage and recent attacking efficiency may prove decisive.

Chelsea

The trip to Molineux on Saturday offers a clearer projection. Recent meetings underline the disparity between the sides, with Wolves losing their last three Premier League matches against Chelsea by a combined margin of nine goals. In addition, the Blues have already beaten the hosts twice this season in both league and cup competition.

Wolves’ attacking issues have been persistent. They have failed to score in more than half of their league matches this season and remain among the lowest scorers in the division. The sale of Jorgen Strand Larsen further weakens that threat and reduces the margin for error against a Chelsea side showing marked improvement.

Since Liam Rosenior took charge, Chelsea have led the league for expected goals, scoring regularly and creating a high volume of big chances. Whether that level can be sustained over a longer period remains to be seen, but the short-term impact has been clear.

João Pedro has been central to that upturn, scoring five goals in his last eight league appearances, and his movement between the lines presents a difficult match-up for a Wolves defence that has struggled for much of the campaign.

Chelsea are one of this weekend’s strongest favourites, and on current evidence, Wolves appear short of the attacking quality required to shift that balance.

Manchester United

United’s meeting with Tottenham comes with contrasting trajectories. The Red Devils are winless in their last six league games against Spurs, but recent developments suggest a shift in momentum.

Tottenham arrive on the back of a poor run of form, with performances failing to improve despite tactical adjustments, although Thomas Frank’s men will take heart from a come-from-behind draw with Manchester City.

Over their last nine league matches, Spurs rank among the lowest sides for Big Chances (15) and attempts to stabilise the team defensively have not yielded improved results, with just two clean sheets and 15 goals conceded during that period. A lack of balance remains evident, partly due to an injury list that stretches into double figures.

Manchester United, by contrast, have responded positively under Michael Carrick. Three consecutive wins have brought renewed confidence, and performances have shown greater structure.

Bruno Fernandes continues to be central to United’s attacking output, ranking among the league leaders for expected goal involvement, expected assists and key passes per 90 minutes. Against a Tottenham side struggling for cohesion, his influence is likely to be significant.

United are firm favourites, reflecting their recent form and Spurs’ ongoing difficulties. While neither side has been entirely convincing this season, the underlying indicators currently point toward the hosts.