Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 26 Predictions

1 hour ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

The quick turnaround means Final One Standing is back, and the midweek slate is even more unforgiving due to injury and squad rotation.

Avoid the upsets at all costs and pick one Premier League winner, because one wrong call, and you’re out!

Aston Villa

Villa welcome Brighton, knowing that recent history leans heavily in their favour. Seven wins from nine (D1, L1) means this fixture has become increasingly one-sided, and Unai Emery will be looking to secure a third successive league double to maintain the Villains’ Champions League push.

The Seagulls continue to struggle – only one league win since late November – and a loss to rivals Crystal Palace on Saturday ramps up the pressure on Fabian Hurzeler.

But Brighton will need to buck a recent trend: they have won just once at Villa Park in six matches (D1, L4), while conceding at least twice in the previous five. Defensive resilience has often been an issue here, and Villa’s ability to score freely in this fixture, blanking just once in ten meetings, suggests this will be a tough night at the office for the visitors.

Midweek football also adds an interesting layer – Villa’s recent record isn’t flawless – giving a glimmer of hope for Brighton… Only two wins from seven isn’t great, but context matters, as both victories came against Wednesday night’s opponents – a 3-0 home win last April and success in a seven-goal thriller (4-3) earlier this season.

But the Seagulls’ Wednesday woes are even starker. Winning only three of their 26 Premier League games (D11, L12), the lowest win rate of any current top-flight side. Opta data (58.1%) supports historical trends and recent dominance, and all three point in the same direction, with Villa well placed to complete a league double.

Crystal Palace

Palace returned to winning ways with a well-deserved win over rivals Brighton, and the side will be hoping to back up that victory with another three points at Selhurst Park.

The Eagles have won each of their last three Premier League meetings with the Clarets, all without conceding, posting an aggregate scoreline of 6-0. And despite their off-the-field problems, the arrival of Jorgen Strand Larsen and Evann Guessand during the window appears to have steadied the ship.

The Clarets’ recent visits to SE25 offer little encouragement. Burnley were beaten 3-0 here on their last visit, and they arrive having allowed the most goal attempts in the league this season (409), averaging 17 per match. They have failed to win any of their previous 15 games… and this fixture presents an excellent opportunity to end a run of seven winless matches on home soil.

In broader terms, Burnley do not travel well: only one win in 12 so far in 2025/26, while in London their record is worse, securing just one win in their last 16 top-flight visits to the capital. With momentum, matchup trends and venue-specific history aligning, Palace look well placed to extend their winning run and keep another clean sheet.

Manchester City

After a late come-from-behind win at Anfield on Sunday, City can ill-afford any slipups in their title charge, and Fulham should be the perfect opponents. The hosts have won their last 19 encounters (all competitions) against the Cottagers – the longest winning run by an English side against another.

Strip that back to the league, and their dominance remains just as stark, with Pep Guardiola’s side winning 16 games on the bounce (another all-time English league record).

The Cottagers’ struggles in this fixture are magnified at The Etihad, having lost eight matches on the spin, while conceding 25 goals in the process, just four goals in their favour, in case you’re wondering. This matchup has turned into a formality in recent seasons.

Timing only serves to strengthen the Citizens’ case, as they are virtually immovable in midweek home league fixtures – they are unbeaten in their last 55 Premier League games (W47, D8) and you would have to go back to May 2010 for the last time they were beaten.

For Fulham, the task is clear but daunting… and to stand any chance, Marco Silva will be looking to the likes of Samuel Chukwueze: 0.6 xA per 90 (2nd), Kevin: 3.8 Successful dribbles per 90 (2nd) and Harry Wilson: 12 Goal Involvements (9th) to provide a creative spark.

However, the odds are heavily stacked in City’s favour (64.7%), and everything points towards another comfortable victory and an extension of one of English football’s most lopsided head-to-head records.

Arsenal

The Bees’ Premier League story famously began with a statement win over Arsenal on the opening night of August 2021. Still, that result now feels like a distant outlier rather than a reliable reference point.

Since that historic evening, Brentford have failed to beat the Gunners in eight attempts (D2, L6), with Arsenal gradually reasserting control over a fixture that initially caught them cold. And away from The Emirates, the likelihood of victory is strengthened further.

While they lost their first Premier League visit to the Gtech Stadium, Mikel Arteta’s side have responded emphatically, winning on each of their last three trips by an aggregate score of 7-1. Those performances underline a growing comfort at this venue and an ability to manage the physical and tactical challenges posed by Brentford.

Brentford have won just one of 11 league games against London opposition (D6, L4), plus just one of their last 11 home Premier League derbies (D6, L4) and are winless in seven since beating Crystal Palace 18 months ago.

That inability to turn local matchups into three-point opportunities has repeatedly stalled momentum. And against the league’s most in-form side (W7, D2, L1), Keith Andrews’ men will do well to avoid a fifth straight league loss.

Arsenal, by contrast, have become one of the capital’s most reliable operators, losing just one of their last 23 Premier League London derbies (W17, D5), and only once in 20 away games.

With recent head-to-head dominance, strong away trends and contrasting London records, the data points towards Arsenal having too much quality to let this one slip.