Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 31 Predictions

1 hour ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

I won’t lie… the reduced slate has made this week’s competition even more challenging than usual.

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You could easily make a case against every one of my picks. But these are the kinds of high-pressure calls we have to make if we want to give ourselves a chance of lasting the distance in Final One Standing.

AFC Bournemouth

While the Red Devils’ performances have stabilised under Michael Carrick, the improvement feels driven more by confidence and individual efficiency rather than a complete tactical transformation. Since his appointment, no side has overperformed their xPoints more than United, suggesting regression remains a very real possibility.

This overperformance is also reflected in attack. Players such as Benjamin Šeško have significantly exceeded their expected output, scoring at almost double his xG since Gameweek 21. And across the last ten matches, United have overperformed their attacking xG by around five goals, a margin that historically tends to correct itself over time.

This makes Bournemouth an awkward opponent at exactly the wrong time. They are a side built on defensive organisation and structural discipline, the exact profile that can expose teams relying on clinical finishing rather than chance volume.

Understandably, the focus will be on Bruno Fernandes, who continues to drive United forward. Since the October international break, effectively when his season found its rhythm, he has produced 16 assists in just 20 appearances and remains their main creative outlet.

However, Bournemouth possess a player capable of disrupting that narrative. Djordje Petrović has quietly been one of the most effective goalkeepers in the league. Since Gameweek 21, he has prevented around five expected goals while conceding just eight, with his shot-stopping inside the box proving particularly impressive.

A win for the Cherries should not be considered a major shock. Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five league meetings with United, while the visitors have not won away at The Vitality since May 2023. Add to that an eleven-game unbeaten run in all competitions, and the momentum clearly sits with the home side.

The predictive model also leans in their favour, making them slight favourites.

Fulham

On paper, this looks like one of the more straightforward outcomes of the weekend.

The Cottagers have roughly a 62 per cent chance of victory, reflecting the significant gap between a side pushing for European football and another that has looked destined for relegation for much of the campaign.

Burnley arrive with just one win in their last 21 Premier League matches, which is relegation form by any reasonable definition. Fulham, meanwhile, have been particularly reliable against promoted opposition, losing just once in their last 14 such matches.

Harry Wilson remains the player most likely to influence the outcome. He has been the hosts’ most reliable attacking contributor this season, with 15 goal involvements, and he continues to produce regularly, with three contributions in his last six appearances showing his levels have not dropped.

The Clarets’ defensive record suggests Fulham should create opportunities. Just one clean sheet in their last ten matches and fourteen goals conceded during that spell point towards a defence that continues to struggle to contain sustained pressure.

Everything in both the data and recent form suggests this is a game Fulham should control.

Nottingham Forest

This has all the characteristics of a genuine relegation six-pointer between two sides whose seasons have drifted into danger.

Spurs’ trajectory is particularly concerning. They have lost their last three Premier League meetings with Forest and are currently winless in twelve league matches. Since the managerial change, their defensive data has deteriorated significantly, with seventeen goals conceded and one of the worst expected goals against records in the division.

Their only real respite has been a draw against a Liverpool side clearly prioritising European competition, with six defeats in their last seven painting a worrying picture.

Forest have hardly been in strong form themselves, with just one win in seven matches, but there is an important difference in how their struggles have manifested. Their defensive structure has largely remained intact, a defining feature of their season. Forest have prioritised defensive stability, sometimes at the expense of attacking output, which explains their relatively modest goal return.

The goalkeepers could ultimately prove decisive. Matz Sels has developed a reputation as one of the more dependable statistical performers in goal, finishing last season among the league’s best for xG prevented. In contrast, Guglielmo Vicario sits towards the opposite end, with one of the weakest goal prevention records.

Tottenham are the only top-flight side yet to win in the league in 2026, and while victory in Europe should boost confidence, Forest will be looking to match their 1-2 win here last season.

Everton

Momentum has shifted quickly, and the optimism surrounding Liam Rosenior’s appointment at Chelsea is beginning to fade… fast!

What once looked like a squad capable of sustaining involvement at the top end of the table now looks far less certain, even to secure Champions League qualification. And a heavy European defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, losing 8–2 on aggregate in a result matching the Blues’ heaviest ever defeat, has only increased the scrutiny surrounding the manager.

They now face an Everton side moving in the opposite direction.

Under David Moyes, Everton have rediscovered stability and form, winning two of their last three matches and quietly putting together a run that has them looking towards the top half rather than the relegation places. Across the last six league fixtures, the Toffees’ form has actually been stronger…

History also favours the home side. Everton have lost just once in their last eight home league matches against Chelsea, showing a consistent ability to make this fixture difficult regardless of league position.

And the Chelsea attack presents an interesting contradiction. Their total of 46 non-penalty goals suggests strong output. Still, the underlying data shows one of the league’s biggest underperformances against expected goals, suggesting finishing is an issue.

Jordan Pickford’s form only reinforces the feeling that Everton can take something from this game. After leading the league in xG prevented last season, he again ranks among the top performers and could prove difficult to beat for a Chelsea side struggling to convert chances.

Set pieces could also prove decisive. Chelsea have one of the weaker defensive records from dead-ball situations, while Moyes’ men have historically been strong in this area, scoring nine set-piece goals already this campaign.

This feels like the type of match where organisation, structure and managerial experience could outweigh Chelsea’s theoretical talent advantage.