Premier League Predictions & News

Final One Standing: Gameweek 37 Predictions

34 minutes ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

The Premier League season is reaching its climax, and with motivation levels, squad rotation and pressure all playing a huge role, identifying the right angles has never been more important.

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From title contenders chasing every point to sides already drifting towards the finish line, this weekend’s fixtures present several strong opportunities for Final One Standing players looking to gain an edge.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham

Context is everything at this stage of the season, and while the Cottagers’ away form on paper doesn’t immediately jump off the page, this is one of those fixtures where the underlying motivation and recent performance trends tell a very different story.

Marco Silva’s side travel to Molineux to face a Wolves team whose competitive edge has visibly dropped since their fate was effectively sealed. Their intensity, defensive structure and tactical discipline, all key factors in helping the team remain competitive for long periods of the campaign, have tailed off significantly, and the data backs that up.

Earlier in the season, Wolves were compact, conceding around 1.5 expected goals per 90 across the opening 29 game weeks — not ideal, but manageable. But since relegation became a near-certainty, that number has climbed sharply to 1.8 xG conceded per game. At the same time, the volume and quality of chances allowed have increased across almost every defensive metric.

Opponents are now finding it easier to play through them, particularly centrally. Wolves are conceding more shots inside the penalty area, more big chances and, crucially, more goals. The defensive regression has been stark. They’ve gone from conceding 1.73 goals per 90 to 2.33 recently, and there’s been a noticeable drop in both physical output and concentration levels.

And that’s a dangerous combination against a Fulham side who arrive with momentum and confidence.

At this stage of the campaign, mentality becomes just as important as tactics, and Fulham look like a side still fully engaged. Wolves, by contrast, appear to be drifting towards the finish line.

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

There’s still plenty riding on this one for Brentford, and Keith Andrews’ side have given themselves a genuine opportunity of securing European football thanks to an excellent run of form during the closing months of the season, with their performances at the Gtech Community Stadium central to that push.

Crystal Palace arrive on the back of a three-nil defeat midweek with a major European final on the horizon, and it would be understandable if Oliver Glasner prioritised squad management over league points.

Rotation seems inevitable, but the psychological aspect is perhaps more significant. The Eagles’ attention will naturally drift towards the bigger occasion, which can often affect the sharpness and aggression needed in Premier League fixtures.

Brentford are unlikely to let them settle.

And what makes the Bees especially dangerous right now is the sheer volume of high-quality chances they are creating. No top-flight side has generated more Big Chances – around 3.3 per game – over the previous 17 matches… and much of that has been driven by Igor Thiago.

The Brazilian has enjoyed a superb debut season and is finishing strongly. His movement inside the box, physical presence and ability to attack crosses have caused problems for virtually every defence he’s faced. Importantly, he’s also been clinical. Scoring 22 goals from just under 20 expected goals…

With the home crowd behind him and the possibility of individual accolades still on the table, Thiago will see this as another opportunity to finish the season in style.

Arsenal vs Burnley

On paper, this looks about as one-sided as Premier League fixtures come.

Arsenal are still fully immersed in the title race, while Burnley arrive at The Emirates with very little left to play for beyond professional pride. When you combine motivation, quality and current form, it’s difficult to make a meaningful case for the visitors.

The Gunners have lost just once in 19 Premier League meetings with Burnley, and recent trends suggest the gulf between the sides may now be even wider than before. The Clarets’ defensive numbers are alarming.

Across the campaign, they rank among the league’s worst teams for expected goals conceded, total goals allowed, shots faced inside the box, and big chances conceded. The side hasn’t demonstrated defensive resilience, and that ultimately cost Scott Parker his job.

And this should be a game where in-form forward Viktor Gyökeres thrives. The Swedish international looks increasingly settled within the Gunners’ attacking structure, and there’s a better understanding of his movement patterns.

Since Gameweek 30, his numbers have been outstanding, averaging 0.88 goals per 90 minutes alongside 0.74 expected goals. The service has improved too, with Arsenal now finding him earlier and more consistently in transition.

Against a Burnley defence that’s lacked physicality and organisation all season, this could become a very long night under the lights.

Chelsea vs Tottenham

Form often goes out of the window in derby matches, but Spurs’ record at Stamford Bridge remains remarkably poor. Tottenham have managed just one win in their last 35 visits, while Chelsea have beaten their London rivals more times than any other Premier League opponent.

And despite the Blues’ recent struggles, this fixture has consistently brought out the best in them, which is just as well, given that Chelsea are enduring their longest Premier League winless run in decades. However, performances have been better than the results suggest. In several matches, they have generated enough opportunities to win comfortably, only to let themselves down in both boxes.

And there’s still plenty at stake… Chelsea remain firmly involved in the battle for European qualification, while Tottenham’s own situation means neither side can afford to approach this game with anything less than full intensity.

Spurs’ attacking issues under Roberto De Zerbi continue to raise questions. While the Italian has improved certain aspects structurally, Spurs’ output in the final third has remained underwhelming. Since his appointment, they are averaging just 1.09 expected goals per 90 — one of the lowest returns in the league over that period.

Chance creation has been particularly problematic, relying on moments of individual quality rather than sustainable attacking patterns.

But at the opposite end of the pitch, their defensive metrics have improved – expected goals conceded are among the best in the division. However, the raw outcomes tell a different story, and clean sheets remain a rare commodity. The side is still vulnerable, and that should encourage Chelsea.

Even during this poor run, the Blues have been creating chances at a far better rate than their recent goal return suggests. Eventually, regression tends to swing back in your favour, particularly when players like João Pedro are getting opportunities in dangerous areas.

With European qualification still within reach, motivation won’t be an issue, and for Chelsea, this feels like an opportunity to reset momentum at exactly the right time.