Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 6 Predictions
If you haven’t played Final One Standing yet, you can begin your journey with this week’s new £20k jackpot.
Everton
West Ham have proven themselves to be a difficult opponent for Everton in recent years, with the Toffees winning just once in their last five Premier League meetings.
However, circumstances have shifted dramatically in recent times, with David Moyes reviving the Blues, while West Ham have been in freefall since he left the London Stadium by mutual consent in 2024, despite winning the Europa Conference League less than 12 months earlier.
In the post-Moyes era, Julen Lopetegui lasted barely eight months, and current manager Graham Potter is fighting to save his job amid increasing unrest among supporters.
Having returned to Merseyside, the Toffees’ home form has been excellent, losing only two games under his stewardship, results which have been the cornerstone of their resurgence. Moyes’ success is built upon tried and tested tactics – a defensive solidity combined with an attacking dead-ball threat – both of which could prove worrisome to West Ham.
Everton have the third-highest set-piece xG since the turn of the year, and you need to go back to February for their last goal conceded from a free-kick or a corner. The Hammers have managed a goal per game (5), although three of those came at Nottingham Forest, and they have blanked against Sunderland and Tottenham. Only four teams have mustered fewer shots (51), and they sit joint-bottom for Big Chances (5).
Expect fireworks and three points under the lights at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Monday night, with Everton consolidating their place in the top half of the table.
Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs may have lost four of their last five against Wolves, but under Thomas Frank, Tottenham are a different beast, and the side has aspirations of domestic and European success this season.
Gone is the defensive fragility that plagued Ange Postecoglou throughout his tenure, and in its place is a team that has returned five clean sheets already this season across all competitions, which includes a two-nil win at The Etihad.
Wolves, however, find themselves rock bottom, having lost their opening five league fixtures… and the side looks destined to stretch that run and join an unwanted group of Premier League teams to lose their first six matches of a new campaign. And while the season dataset may be very small, there are some telling signs as to why Wolves have been struggling, particularly on the road.
They have taken the fewest shots (14), which in turn places them bottom for xG (0.99), and when you combine that with Goals (0) and Big Chances Created (0), you can see why Wolves have the league’s least threatening attack.
In contrast, Tottenham are running hot offensively, averaging two goals per game (10), although this is a big overperformance of their xG (6.08). Mohammed Kudus, Richarlison and Xavi Simmons offer significant goal threat, and against a side that has already given up ten Big Chances, opportunities should be plentiful…
There are also concerns over the once-reliable Jose Sa, whose save percentage has dropped to 61%, significantly below the 70% average across Europe’s top five leagues. The Portuguese stopper has gone from dependable to one of the biggest underperformers in the league.
Statistically, Spurs have the second-best odds of winning this weekend. And despite a midweek Carabao Cup tie, the starting XI should be pretty fresh, having seen Thomas Frank rotate heavily for the win over Doncaster.
Manchester United
United fans will be wary of believing things have finally turned a corner after an unexpected victory over Chelsea…
The Red Devils started brightly, but their two goals did come against ten men following the early dismissal of Robert Sanchez, with the game much closer once Casemiro received his marching orders.
Still, the tactical tweaks made by Ruben Amorim are beginning to bear fruit. For the second time this season, United were effective in deploying their strong, direct style, which should benefit the likes of Benjamin Šeško and Matheus Cunha, while Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes flourish under the system. Both rank in the Top 3 for expected goal involvements (xGI), trailing only to Erling Haaland.
The Red Devils’ underlying attacking numbers remain strong – xG 10.01 (1st) and Shots 81 (1st) – but they continue to underperform, a common trait from recent seasons.
But against Brentford, they have the perfect opportunity to get points and goals on the board, as Caoimhin Kelleher ranks second-worst in the league for xG prevented, conceding three more goals than expected.
United have taken just one point away from home this season. But despite Keith Andrews’ men being currently unbeaten at the Gtech Stadium, I do expect an away win given the Bees’ defensive fragility.
Manchester City
The Citizens are this weekend’s banker, despite a slight concern over the fitness of in-form striker Erling Haaland.
The Norwegian already has scored six goals to his name, and after missing the win at Huddersfield on Wednesday night due to a minor back complaint, he faces a late test, although he has been spotted working on the training pitches.
City have won the last ten meetings (all competitions) with an aggregate score of 40-3 at The Etihad, and the odds of an eleventh consecutive victory look good… the home side are given a massive 76 per cent chance of victory. Fill your boots.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
