Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 7 Predictions
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AFC Bournemouth
All eyes are on the Cherries, with history favouring the home side, who have lost only twice in their last 16 league meetings with Fulham. And at The Vitality, their dominance is even more apparent, where The Cottagers are on a three-game losing streak.
Bournemouth are enjoying their best-ever start to a Premier League campaign, collecting 11 points from six matches despite a summer of significant squad turnover, particularly in defence, which saw the departures of first-team regulars Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez, and Ilya Zabarnyi.
Andoni Iraola has guided his team to sixth place, in spite of an opening-day defeat to Liverpool, with wins over Brighton, Tottenham, and Wolves.
Defensively, Bournemouth have built a solid foundation, ranking third for xG Conceded (5.4) and joint-second for Clean Sheets (3). The side also sits in the Top 5 for Tackles (116), Interceptions (52) and Clearances (201). And this resilience has allowed their attacking play to shine, spearheaded by Antoine Semenyo, who has scored eight of the Cherries’ last 15 league goals (4 from six in 2025/26).
Fulham, on the other hand, have had an indifferent start, taking only one point on the road. With just two goals scored and six against, the side is struggling to create opportunities (joint-lowest Big Chances).
They could also be without a recognised striker, as Rodrigo Muniz is already a confirmed absentee, and Raul Jimenez faces a late fitness test.
Meanwhile, in defence, they sit in the Bottom Three for Expected Clean Sheets (0.6) and Shots Faced (32), of which two-thirds came from inside the 18-yard box. The home side appeals under the lights on Friday night, with a 47% chance of taking all three points.
Leeds United
Elland Road has become a fortress for the Lilywhites, who remain unbeaten this season (W1, D2), with their last defeat more than a year ago (Sept 2024).
Leeds eked an opening weekend win over Everton, and with draws against Newcastle and Bournemouth, Daniel Farke has made his side difficult to break down, conceding only twice and recording two clean sheets. In attack, Leeds have outperformed their opponents on expected goals (xG) in each of those home games.
A key factor has been Sean Longstaff. The former Newcastle midfielder has been excellent since his arrival… sitting in the Top 4 for Tackles per 90 (4.4) and Tackles (19), while offensively, Longstaff is Top 8 for Key Passes (8) and Successful Crosses (8) since Gameweek 3, providing balance in both phases of play.
And this will be concerning for Tottenham, who were lucky to leave Norway with a share of the spoils following a late own goal. However, history may leave some feeling uneasy, as Leeds have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against Spurs, with the visitors winning back-to-back games at Elland Road. Still, recent form suggests Leeds have a real opportunity to redress the balance.
Since the arrival of Thomas Frank, Spurs have attempted to remedy their defensive issues from the Ange Postecoglou era, but in doing so, their attacking play has been stifled. From open play, the team are in the Bottom Half for xG (7.0), Shots (68), Key Passes (50) and Big Chances Created (7). This should play into the hands of their hosts.
The predictive data – a 44 per cent chance of winning – undoubtedly takes direction from Leeds’ 23-match unbeaten run at home, which is primarily made up of Championship games. But Tottenham lost 9 of their fifteen games after a European fixture last season, and I can see a surprise in the lunchtime kick-off.
Sunderland
Okay, this pick is certainly not for the faint-hearted. On paper, the predictive models suggest Manchester United should be clear favourites yet the eye test and underlying form make Sunderland a very intriguing value pick.
The Black Cats arrive with three wins and three clean sheets from their opening fixtures, while Ruben Amorim and United, by contrast, are crumbling under increasing pressure as the side continues on from its failings last season.
Data-wise, the numbers paint a promising picture for the Red Devils: Shots – 95 (1st), xG – 12.04 (1st) and Key Passes 69 (1st). But the harsh reality is that United are fourteenth in the table after only two wins.
Defensively, the numbers make Sunderland far superior: Goals Conceded (4-v-11) and xGC (7-vs-8.9), while questions remain over goalkeeper Altay Bayindir, who is among the league’s poorest performers in expected goals prevented (-0.8), which places him fifteenth.
For context, Sunderland stopper Robin Roefs is ranked first, having prevented 2.6 goals. Only Arsenal have faced fewer shots (56) this season, but by far, United’s opponents have the highest shot conversion rate, meaning 1 in 5 efforts ends up in a goal.
I’m going against the projection model, with situational and statistical context suggesting Sunderland are good value to spring a surprise.
Brighton and Hove Albion
The data makes grim reading for Wolves, who host Brighton this weekend. They have won just two of their 14 Premier League meetings with the Seagulls, the last of which came back in 2021.
Wolves’ decline has been stark since the departure of Nuno Espírito Santo, and while the side has shown glimpses of promise under Vitor Pereira, poor recruitment and significant outgoings – notably Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait Nouri this summer – have left the club stagnating.
If they harbour any hope of staying up, then they must improve upon a home record that has returned zero points from three games.
Brighton, meanwhile, continue their upward trajectory, bouncing back from the draw with Fulham and the defeat to Everton, with wins over Manchester City and Chelsea.
Fabian Hurzeler has his side playing an entertaining attacking brand of football, which is creating excellent opportunities for their forward players. Their xG per shot (0.16) is the best in the Premier League, while their xG (10.51) ranks them fourth. This is potentially a result of the Seagulls’ high-press, with an average of 5.3 possessions won in the final third per 90 (1st).
At the back, Brighton are yet to register a clean sheet, but without a fully fit Jorgen Strand Larsen – currently managing an ongoing Achilles issue – Wolves look to lack the cutting edge to exploit these frailties.
They sit in the bottom four for xG (5.6), averaging just 0.67 goals, which is not surprising considering their chance creation (5) is among the poorest in the league, with only 10 shots per 90 (third lowest), and only two teams have a worse xG per shot (0.09).
Brighton, with an estimated 50 per cent win probability, looks the logical side to back here.
