By Tony Nguyen
6th September 2018
- Friday 7th September
- Kick-off: 19:45
- Stadium: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
- Live on Sky Sports Mix / Sky Sports Football
Italy vs Poland predictions: Poland not to be underestimated against young Azzurri midfield
Roberto Mancini’s first competitive match in charge of his country sees the hosts priced up as 4/6 favourites for victory in William Hill’s Italy vs Poland odds.
Quite how many backers they’ll have at such slender fractions is open to debate, with a 2-1 win over Saudi Arabia the sole success in four clean-sheet-free friendlies under the former Manchester City man to date.
Certainly Mancini doesn’t appear to have an odds-on shot’s collection of midfield options at his disposal. Paris Saint-Germain star Marco Verratti is injured and not one of the midfielders called up by the Italy boss has more than 11 caps to his name. Six of the eight are aged 24 or younger.
Poland are betting at 9/2 to win, while the draw is priced up at odds of 13/5 and both stand as out as potential value in our Italy vs Poland predictions, despite the White and Reds’ tame group-stage exit at the World Cup this summer.
Russia wasn’t the first instance of the Eagles failing to convert a serene qualifying campaign into a strong major tournament showing, but automatic qualifications for the last two major tournaments suggest they’re pretty effective in these more bread and butter ties.
Jerzy Brzeczek will manage the Poles for the first time in Bologna, but, unlike his opposite number, he has experience throughout his side.
Robert Lewandowski, Grzegorz Krychowiak, Arkadiusz Milik and Wojciech Szczesny are among nine players at his disposal with 36 caps or more to their name, while the latter pair also form part of an eight-strong group who ply their club trade in Serie A.
Head-to-head (most recent first): Poland 0-2 Italy, Poland 3-1 Italy, Italy 3-0 Poland, Poland 0-0 Italy, Poland 0-2 Italy, Italy 0-0 Poland, Poland 2-1 Italy.
Free UEFA Nations League betting tips: Italy vs Poland predictions
Prediction: Poland/draw double chance @ 11/10 odds
Italy have yet to keep a clean sheet under Mancini and, although Giorgio Chiellini’s decision to reverse his international retirement and rejoin Leonardo Bonucci at the heart of defence is likely to improve matters, this alone is unlikely to see them land their cramped win odds.
The Azzurri can’t be trusted to convert what superiority the William Hill traders have seen fit to attribute them, having won just twice in their last 10 outings.
Just one of those saw them net more than once (when Andrea Belotti notched the winner in a 2-1 win against the Saudis), meaning the Poland/draw double chance is the no-brainer among our Italy vs Poland predictions.
For more advice, tips and guides got betting on this weekend’s Premier League action, visit our football accumulator article.
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes @ 11/10 odds
Despite stinking out the gaff in Russia, the Poles still scored in two or their three games and they’ve now failed to find the net just once in their last five games.
They’ve also kept only two clean sheets in their last eight outings and with Mario Balotelli and Lorenzo Insigne among those assuring Italy have struck in their last four internationals, both sides bagging is another Italy vs Poland prediction.
Betting Recommendation: Robert Lewandowski anytime goalscorer betting @ 2/1
The Bayern Munich man may have struck out at the World Cup, but he suffered from his side’s collective failings in Russia.
Lewandowski struck nine times in his last seven outings for his country before the tournament, making him the tip of our preferred Italy vs Poland odds to land an anytime score in Bologna.
Italy vs Poland stats
- Seven of Italy’s last 10 internationals have produced under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in all four of Italy’s matches under Mancini.
- Poland have avoided defeat in 10 of their last dozen away games.