By Thomas Reynolds
7th February 2019
Manchester City have had little time to bask in the glory of regaining the Premier League top spot, with the visit of Chelsea, the first team to beat them in the division this season, imminent.
Despite being turned over 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in December, Pep Guardiola’s men are 1/2 favourites for three points in the match betting, with the Blues 11/2 underdogs and the draw 10/3.
However, with City winning 15 of their last 16 home games and the Blues having already proven themselves capable of upsetting the odds against the champions once this season, it could be worth swerving the 90 minutes market in favour of a 13/10 wager that’s won in the sides’ last four clashes.
Manchester City vs Chelsea betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 13/10
The last four times City have danced with the Stamford Bridge outfit, including both times Maurizio Sarri has faced Guardiola in the Blues dugout, unders bettors have cleaned up.
A pair of 1-0s under the auspices of Antonio Conte in the 2016/17 campaign, have been followed up with a brace of 2-0s this term, with the adversaries claiming a win apiece.
Encouragingly, under 2.5 goals, a bet that copped in all four fixtures, has been priced up at generous odds of 13/10 by the William Hill traders, with overs considered a heavy favourite at 4/7.
Why under 2.5 goals can land again
You can see where the odds are coming from. City haven’t been shut out at home all season long and only twice failed to net at the Etihad last season.
City’s recent Manchester rampages have advertised at least one persuasive factor in favour of our tip, namely the four clean sheets they’ve kept in their last five games on home turf.
However, perhaps a more compelling angle is the presence of so many of the Chelsea defensive players that’ve proved capable of seriously curtailing the hosts’ scoring over the last two campaigns.
Antonio Rudiger, Marcos Alonso and Cesar Azpilicueta played in each of the last four low-scoring encounters between the two clubs, while N’Golo Kante, scorer in at Stamford Bridge earlier this term, missed only the 0-2 Community Shield reverse of the quartet.