By William Hill
12th October 2018
Poland take on Italy in the UEFA Nations League for the second time in just over a month after sharing a 1-1 draw in Bologna, with both sides continuing to struggle for form under new regimes.
Poland vs Italy: Odds and Predictions
The Poles might well feel aggrieved to find themselves 9/5 match-betting outsiders at Stadion Slaski, after coming within 12 minutes (plus injury time) of besting the Italians away from home little over a month ago.
Italy are winless in five since a 2-1 victory over Saudi Arabia in Roberto Mancini’s first game in charge, yet find themselves 31/20 favourites for three UEFA Nations League A Group 3 points in Chorzow, with the draw trading at odds of 11/5.
Recently-installed Eagles manager Jerzy Brzeczek has yet to savour a victory in three matches in charge of his own national team, but their 2-3 loss to Portugal in midweek suggests the attacking threat they pose on home soil has survived the departure of his predecessor Adam Nawalka.
Our Poland vs Italy predictions expect this to be the decisive factor in the destination of the spoils.
Poland vs Italy head-to-head (most recent first): Italy 1-1 Poland, Poland 0-2 Italy, Poland 3-1 Italy, Italy 3-0 Poland, Poland 0-0 Italy, Poland 1-0 Italy.
Poland vs Italy predictions: score, best bet, scorer tips
Correct score prediction: Poland 2-1 Italy 1 @ odds of 10/1
Ok, so our correct score betting tip for the White and Reds’ last UEFA Nations League outing was wide of the mark, having underestimated the attacking threat posed by a Cristiano Ronaldo-free Portugal, but we’re opting for a carbon copy of that projection in Poland vs Italy.
The Azzurri have netted once or less in each of their last five games, with Saudi Arabia the sole side they’ve notched more against under Mancini.
Meanwhile, their last two goals were a penalty and a long-range effort that had no right to go in, but profited from a goalkeeping fumble. The latter came against Ukraine last time out, a friendly in which the return of Marco Verratti from injury did little to enliven proceedings.
If it wasn’t for the Poles’ staunch commitment to keeping launderettes specialising in bedclothes in business with their competitive home games, it wouldn’t be hard to foresee them drawing a blank.
Yet, both sides have scored in seven of the Eagles’ last eight competitive outings on their own turf, with even Gibraltar getting in on the act and Kazakhstan the sole side not to net.
More impressive from a Polish point of view is that they’ve now struck at least twice in their past 11 competitive home games, including against sides of the ilk of an autumn-2014 Germany.
They bested Die Mannschaft 2-0 in that post-World Cup encounter and such attacking effectiveness is projected to narrowly outweigh their defensive generosity against Italy.
Best bet: Both teams to score @ EVS
The second of our Poland vs Italy predictions copped for us when the hosts were last in action in midweek and is expected to follow up when the Azzurri come to town.
Despite their dour form under Mancini, the Italians have only failed to net once in six games under the former Manchester City and Internazionale boss and should be up to keeping their side of the bargain against prolific hosts.
Scorer predictions: Krzysztof Piatek to score first @ a 7/1 tip
We’d like to start this section with a frank admission of guilt for failing to tip up absurdly on-fire Genoa marksman Piatek to score against the Portuguese, but at least we can put this right in our Poland vs Italy predictions.
The 23-year-old has struck 26 goals in his last 23 games for club(s) and country, carrying his form from Cracovia to the international stage, via a summer switch to Serie A side Genoa.
Against an ageing, Gianluigi-Buffonless, Italian backline, marshalled by desperation-recall Giorgio Chiellini, the 13/5 anytime odds bet is begging to be backed.
Piatek certainly looks a better value pick than 5/4 selection Robert Lewandowski, who somehow managed to stay on the periphery of the Poles’ midweek ding-dong and hasn’t registered for his nation since before the World Cup.
For a scorer betting tip of an Italian persuasion, it’s worth overlooking excellently-monikered call-up Kevin Lasagna for Lorenzo Insigne, who is the same anytime scorer price as the Udinese man despite hitting six goals in his past eight outings on all fronts.
Poland vs Italy Opta stats:
- Italy have won just once in their last 10 matches (D5, L4).
- Poland have failed to win just twice in their last 11 competitive home games (W9, D1, L1).
- Both teams have found the net in six of the Azzurri’s last seven internationals.