Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 3 Predictions
Ben Dinnery returns with his latest Final One Standing tips and predictions ahead of matchday three in the 2025/26 Premier League.
We’re already two game weeks in, and if you’ve survived the opening rounds, then congratulations and good luck for the upcoming fixtures.
However, if you have already been knocked out, then fear not, because you can enter the £50k guaranteed Final One Standing jackpot league this week!
And with that, let’s get cracking with my selections…
Manchester United
Now, let’s assume that Ruben Amorim is still in charge come kick-off, and that his players are still playing for the manager… then Saturday really is last chance saloon! Forget about the cup midweek and focus on the Premier League!
Despite a slow start to the season, United have been putting up some promising attacking numbers. And away from Turf Moor, you would suspect that Burnley are going to provide the hosts with a plethora of goal-scoring opportunities, given that Spurs accrued 2.33xG, the second highest of the opening round.
The Red Devils currently lead the attacking charts for the most shots (32), of which twenty-three came from inside the box (1st), although they have only created 2 Big Chances (3.22xG).
Check out our Premier League predictions for Saturday
Their big summer spending may not have yielded the desired returns yet, but in Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbuemo, they have some really positive data. Cunha can consider himself rather unfortunate so far, not to have his name on the scoresheet (0.9xGI), while Mbeumo is only slightly behind (0.8xGI) across the opening fixtures.
History also points to the home side, with United losing just once to Burnley in their previous 25 meetings, and despite their recent troubles, they are unbeaten in 23 league outings against newly promoted sides.
The predictive data gives Manchester United a 57 per cent chance of taking three points, with very strong odds of a clean sheet (46%).
Nottingham Forest
Graham Potter is already feeling the pressure – favourite for the first Premier League manager to be sacked – and a trip to the City Ground presents another difficult match-up to try and negotiate.
Since taking charge at The London Stadium, no team has taken fewer points (20), apart from those relegated last season, and even at this early stage, this is a must-not-lose situation.
Bet on the Premier League at William Hill
Even the underlying numbers fail to offer any encouragement. No team has conceded more shots in the box (19), and their nine Big Chances against is the highest by far… They also sit in the Bottom Two for Non-Penalty xG conceded (3.5) and actual Goals Against (8).
Meanwhile, and despite murmurings of unrest, Forest have started the season well.
Chris Wood is continuing from where he left off last season, and with eight goals already against West Ham, the joint most of any opponent, you wouldn’t bet against him adding to that tally this weekend.
Chelsea
Fulham need to sign ‘at least three players’ before the end of the transfer window, according to manager Marco Silva.
And the Cottagers’ lack of recruitment over the summer has dominated the headlines following a poor finish to the 2024/25 season, which saw them produce near-relegation-level numbers, taking just 12 points from their final 11 games, while conceding 18 goals.
With two scrappy draws from their opening matches, the Blues will be hoping to capitalise against their London rivals.
Acca tips on this weekend’s Premier League matches
Chelsea are far from the finished product, but with the Club World Cup under their belt, plus the additions of Joao Pedro, Jamie Gittens, and Liam Delap, to name but a few, they are progressing. Confidence is high following a thumping 5-1 victory over West Ham, producing 7 Big Chances, 2.75xG and 10 shots in the box.
Fulham have now gone 11 matches without a clean sheet, a run stretching back to March 2025. And with only one win at Stamford Bridge in over 70 years – although it did come less than 12 months ago, when Harry Wilson and Rodrigo Muniz scored two late goals on Boxing Day – Chelsea look nailed.
So, with form and history favouring the home side, the data indicates a very attractive 61% likelihood of victory.
Manchester City
You may fancy backing City when the odds of victory seem a little more assured – especially after last weekend – but The Citizens do love a trip to the south coast, winning 19 of their thirty matches against Brighton.
Pep will be hoping last weekend’s humiliating home loss to Tottenham was nothing more than a minor blip, as his new recruits settle and adapt to the rigours of Premier League football.
Bet on football at William Hill
The Seagulls are yet to win in the league. Still, six goals in the Carabao Cup will give the side a much-needed lift, and Fabian Hurzeler will want his side to match their underlying numbers, which suggests they are one of the league’s biggest underperformers on xG (3.99) with only one goal.
The departure of Joao Pedro (to Chelsea) is undoubtedly a contributing factor, while the young Greek duo of Stefanos Tzimas, 19, and Charalampos Kostoulas, 18, still need time.
City are on an incredible run of five away games without conceding in the league, with just one goal against since February. Plus, this weekend will mark Erling Haaland’s 100th Premier League appearance, and he will be keen to add to his record-breaking 87 goals.
