Premier League Predictions & News
Final One Standing 2026/27: Gameweek 7 Predictions
We’re six matches into the season, and reputations and performances are telling different stories.
Some established sides are posting impressive totals that look less convincing on closer inspection. Meanwhile, less fashionable teams are carving out better chances, pressing effectively and developing strengths that could trouble this weekend’s opponents.
For Final One Standing players, that creates an opportunity to look beyond the usual favourites—and potentially preserve stronger teams for later rounds. Brighton offer the clearest statistical case, while Brentford, Leeds and Hull provide three alternatives with appealing matchups.
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace
Derbies rarely respect the form book, and the Seagulls’ record of just two wins in their last 14 meetings with Palace is a clear warning. However, the current numbers make a compelling case for the home side.
Brighton lead the Premier League with 18 goals scored (12.91 xG) across the opening game weeks, while the Eagles have conceded a league-high 12.80 xG. And that is a worrying combination for Palace, who also play away in the Europa League on Thursday evening.
Palace have allowed 108 shots, with almost three-quarters coming from inside the penalty area. Their average of 0.12 xG conceded per attempt is the sixth-highest in the top flight, pointing to problems with both the volume and quality of chances conceded. Eight errors leading to three goals have compounded a difficult start.
Brighton also pose a major threat from dead balls, having already scored five set-piece goals from 3.02 xG, while Palace have conceded 36 free-kick and corner-kick attempts.
Veteran midfielder Pascal Groß looks particularly well placed to exploit those vulnerabilities. With three goals, four assists, and 18 chances created—13 from open play—his influence extends beyond his set-piece delivery. His 87 successful final-third passes underline his involvement in the Seagulls’ attacking play.
History offers Palace encouragement, but almost everything else points towards Brighton, including the projected win probability (58%).
Brentford vs Liverpool
Brentford have enough in the locker to make this a very uncomfortable afternoon for Liverpool and the hosts are narrow favourites in the latest Premier League odds at William Hill.
The Bees are one of only three unbeaten sides, and their attacking output (12 goals from 10.96 xG) backs up results, while their direct approach suits this opponent.
Almost two in every five passes (39.2%) travel forward, and while they average only 45.7% possession, they generate 0.12 xG per shot, showing they don’t need to dominate to create worthwhile chances.
Their ability to regain possession in the final third offers another threat: 46 high turnovers have produced 11 shots and two goals—a potential route to exposing Liverpool, whose defensive numbers warrant closer inspection.
They rank third-best in total xG conceded, but that headline is less reassuring once you remove set-piece chances (6.53 xG), which is slightly higher than Manchester United (6.48) and Tottenham (6.31). That doesn’t make Liverpool poor defensively, but it suggests their overall ranking conceals vulnerabilities Brentford could exploit.
At the opposite end, Liverpool’s seven goals from 9.28 xG suggest an underperformance that could improve. However, lingering doubts over the fitness of their three most prominent attacking options—Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai—could make for another tricky away day.
Forget the midweek European win; this is the Premier League, and Brentford are a tough nut to crack at the Gtech Stadium.
Leeds United vs Manchester United
The predictive numbers favour the visitors more than I do, and I believe Leeds will turn a difficult few days into a difficult week for Manchester United and Michael Carrick.
The Red Devils lead the league with 125 shots, generating 10.69 xG (5th). On the face of it, those figures suggest a side capable of turning around a five-game winless run, but in reality, their average of just 0.09 xG per attempt exposes a less convincing side to that volume.
Leeds shoot less frequently (71), but their opportunities yield better returns, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin is central to that threat. His three goals closely match his 3.12 xG, while seven of his 11 attempts have been on target. An average of 0.28 xG per shot suggests Leeds are regularly finding the striker in dangerous positions.
Behind him, the midfield provides the platform. Ethan Ampadu has recorded 13 tackles, 13 interceptions, and a 60.6% ground-duel success rate, while teammate Anton Stach adds 16 tackles, 11 interceptions, and 15 successful aerial duels from 21 contests. Leeds’ 76 pressed sequences also rank them second in the division.
That combination could trouble a United side still searching for consistency under Michael Carrick: disrupt possession, win the midfield contest, and attack before they can reorganise.
At Elland Road, I’m backing Leeds to turn that pressure into three points.
Fulham vs Hull City
The Tigers’ strong start has outpaced their underlying numbers, so some caution is sensible. Even so, a visit to bottom-placed Fulham looks an appealing opportunity to use them in Final One Standing.
Álvaro Arbeloa’s side have collected just two points from six matches, and just one from three games at Craven Cottage. Of the 94 shots they have faced, more than two-thirds come from inside the 18-yard area, and their opponents create threatening chances far too often.
And the speed of Hull’s attack could test that weakness. They lead the league for direct speed at 2.19, while Fulham rank last at 1.38. Hull also average only 2.61 passes per sequence, compared with Fulham’s 4.36. Those contrasting styles create an interesting contest. If Fulham seek control through longer spells of possession, Hull have the tools to threaten quickly on turnover.
The physical contests offer another angle. Hull have won more than half their ground duels (52.1%), the seventh-best in the division, compared with Fulham, who rank 16th (47.4%).
With three set-piece goals already, the Tigers have another attacking avenue to explore, especially as Fulham sit in the bottom three for aerial success (45.2%).
This is by no means a gimme, but Hull are an appealing differential against a struggling Fulham side – and a manager – that is low on confidence.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
