Premier League Relegation Odds & Predictions (2025/26)

We look at the latest relegation betting markets ahead of the opening weekend of the 2025/26 Premier League campaign, with our writer picking out his leading fancies to drop down to the EFL Championship.

All three newly promoted sides were relegated in each of the last two Premier League seasons. The 2023/24 campaign was the first time this had occurred since the 1997/98 season, reflecting how the gulf in class between the Championship and Premier League has grown.

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The Premier League betting markets have often made the newly promoted sides the relegation favourites before the opening weekend.

This season is no different with Burnley, Sunderland, and Leeds given by far the shortest betting odds to be relegated ahead of Wolves, Brentford, and West Ham.

In 2023/24, Nottingham Forest set a record by avoiding relegation with only 32 points (after their four-point deduction). Leicester finished 18th with 25 points last season and would have needed 39 to avoid the drop.

Premier League Relegation Betting Odds:

Punters can bet on the 2025/26 Premier League relegated clubs at William Hill and here is the current state of the market:

• Burnley – 1/3
• Sunderland – 2/5
• Leeds – 10/11
• Wolves – 3/1
• Brentford – 10/3
• West Ham – 6/1
• Everton – 7/1
• Fulham – 7/1
• Crystal Palace – 15/2
• Nottingham Forest – 8/1
• Bournemouth – 9/1

Worst PL Expected Goal Differences in 2024/25

Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester had by far the worst expected goal differences in the Premier League last season. Excluding the relegated sides, here are the teams with the worst xGD marks:

• Wolves: – 14.5
• West Ham: – 12.7
• Tottenham: -4.5
• Everton: -4.5
• Nottingham Forest: -3.4
• Manchester United: -1.3
• Fulham: +1.8
• Brentford: +3.6

Promoted Sides

At least one of the promoted sides will be relegated. Only four times in Premier League history have all three newly promoted teams stayed up, and the last two seasons have been particularly brutal for the newbies.

Burnley have been the most cautious of the three clubs so far. Leeds were far and away the strongest of the trio in their Championship-winning campaign, posting a +59.5 expected goal difference. Burnley and Sunderland were at +18.4 and +9.1, respectively.

Sunderland, though, have shown real ambition in the transfer market. Granit Xhaka is one of the more remarkable signings from a newly promoted side in recent memory. Habib Diarra and Enzo Le Fee also project to be immediately impactful in the Premier League.

West Ham At Threat

West Ham have won 15 of their last 57 Premier League matches. A final-day win over Ipswich was required to take their points-per-game average above one during Graham Potter’s tenure in 2024/25.

Mohammed Kudus left to join Tottenham. Jean-Clair Todibo and El Hadji Malick Diouf have been added on permanent deals, as have Kyle Walker-Peters and Callum Wilson, but Potter needs further reinforcements if this ill-fitting squad is to adapt to his stylistic demands.

Wolves were the only Premier League team with a worse expected goal difference than the Hammers last time around. There’s a huge range of outcomes for West Ham in 2025/26 – there’s top-half upside if Potter gets it right, but it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see them in the midst of a relegation scrap. There’s value at 6/1.

Brentford’s Losses

Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard, and Mark Flekken have departed. Thomas Frank is in charge of Tottenham. Yoane Wissa could follow his strike partner Mbeumo out the door.

Such losses would be a knockout blow to most Premier League clubs. They could prove to be for Brentford, but much like Brighton, their infrastructure deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Relying heavily on analytics, the Bees have overcome numerous key player and managerial departures in the past. It has enabled them to punch a long way above their weight since Matthew Benham took full control of the club over a decade ago.

It’s easy to see why their odds are so short, but we are giving Brentford the benefit of the doubt and think they can avoid the drop.

Wolves’ Worrying Trend

Like Brentford, Wolves have lost key players in Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri. Unlike Brentford, Wolves had ugly underlying numbers last season, with the worst expected goal difference outside the bottom three.

Financial regulations limit how much the Midlanders can spend to revamp their squad. They lack Premier League quality outside of a handful of players, with an alarming amount of faith being placed in Jhon Arias as a Cunha replacement.

Since finishing 10th in 2021/22, Wolves have placed 13th, 14th, and 16th. Not enough has been done to arrest their slide towards relegation – they are a good value bet at their current price, particularly with their odds likely shorten due to a difficult early season schedule.

Prediction: Burnley, Wolves, & West Ham Relegated at 80/1

The newly promoted sides all to go down is a bet to steer clear of at 9/4. At least one of Leeds and Sunderland should be able to avoid the drop with the quality the latter have added and the dominance the former showed last season.

Several teams have been saved over the last couple of seasons by how weak the promoted sides have been. This trio is clearly stronger.

West Ham and Wolves look the most vulnerable. Wolves have been struggling to tread water in recent years, while West Ham are taking a gamble with Potter. We know the former Chelsea manager is an excellent coach, but he needs the right players, and he needs time. Do West Ham give him both of those?

Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest are two other teams worth considering as longshots in this market if the rigours of European football stretch their squads to breaking point. Forest’s underlying numbers were poor last season, and Palace could yet lose Marc Guehi and Eberechi Eze.

*Odds correct at the time of writing – prices subject to change*