Premier League Predictions & News

Premier League Top Goal Scorer Odds & Predictions (2025/26)

1 month ago

| BY Sam Cox

A look at the Golden Boot odds ahead of the 2025/26 Premier League season, with Sam Cox assessing the leading marksmen in the race to finish as the top goal scorer in the division.

With Mohamed Salah set to miss between three and six Premier League fixtures due to AFCON commitments, Erling Haaland opens as the football betting favourite to win the 2025/26 Premier League Golden Boot.

Haaland, who won the award in his first two Premier League seasons, finished last season with 22 league goals, putting him behind Salah and Alexander Isak.

Salah joined Thierry Henry as the only players to win the Golden Boot on four occasions, so it’s no surprise the Premier League betting markets price him at 9/2 despite his inevitable absence.

From 2018/19 to 2021/22, the top Premier League scorer posted 22 or 23 goals. Haaland set a Premier League record with 36 goals in 2022/23 before scoring 27 in the following season. Salah topped the charts with 29 in 2024/25.

Since the 2009/10 season, nine Golden Boot winners have scored more than 25 league goals. If Haaland and Salah stay fit, at least 25 goals are required to be in contention for the award.

Premier League Golden Boot Odds 2025/26:

Punters can bet on the Premier League top goal scorer for the new season at William Hill and here is the current state of the market:

Erling Haaland – 11/10
Mohamed Salah – 9/2
Alexander Isak – 6/1
Viktor Gyökeres – 7/1
João Pedro – 16/1
Hugo Ekitike – 16/1
Cole Palmer – 20/1
Ollie Watkins – 25/1
Dominic Solanke – 28/1
Matheus Cunha – 33/1
Darwin Núñez – 40/1
Bukayo Saka – 40/1
Liam Delap – 40/1
Omar Marmoush – 40/1

Each-way bet pays out on the top-four places.

Man To Beat: Haaland

A 22-goal season was a down year for Haaland, yet his 0.71 goals per 90 wasn’t far behind Salah (0.79) or Isak (0.72). The Norwegian still led the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals per 90 and had a narrow lead over Salah and Cole Palmer in shots per match (3.5 to 3.4).

Manchester City were still second in xG generated, despite being a long way off title contention. Tijjani Reijnders reinforces the centre of their midfield, while Rayan Cherki and Rayan Ait-Nouri add to their options on the wing and at left-back, respectively.

If he plays 34 or more league matches, it’s surely Haaland’s award to lose.

Nearest Rivals

Salah and Isak are joined by new Arsenal striker Viktor Gyökeres as Haaland’s closest rivals in the betting market. Six teams generated more expected goals than Arsenal last season, but having Gyökeres as a focal point should help the Gunners create chances.

The former Sporting scored 51 non-penalty league goals over the last two seasons. His 0.69 npxG over those two campaigns is better than any Premier League player recorded last season, but there’s a significant step up in quality from the Primeira Liga.

Another 39-goal campaign isn’t going to happen. With how many strikers have struggled in Europe’s top leagues when making the move from Portugal, a 20-goal return from Gyökeres would be satisfactory.

In an Arsenal team that didn’t create chances as prolifically as Newcastle, Liverpool, City, or Chelsea, it’s hard to see Gyökeres keeping pace in the Golden Boot race.

Bettors should also be wary of backing Isak given the uncertainty over his future. He’s reportedly keen on a move to Liverpool. Does he miss the start of the season as the transfer saga is resolved? Could a transfer to Anfield hamper his and Salah’s Golden Boot chances?

Longer Shots

João Pedro, who impressed for Chelsea in the Club World Cup, and Liverpool new boy Hugo Ekitike are tied for the next-shortest odds at 16/1. Pedro had a career-high 10 Premier League goals in 2024/25, and his npXG per 90 topped out at 0.35 in 2023/24.

Ekitike had a breakout season for Eintracht Frankfurt, scoring 15 goals and posting a 0.68 npxG. The Frenchman has the upside to score 25+ league goals and looks a far better option than Pedro at 16s. Still, his role could alter depending on Liverpool’s pursuit of Isak.

Cole Palmer had less npxG per 90 than Noni Madueke last season. Unless he gets a historic haul of penalties, he’s not a good option at 20/1.

Instead, it’s worth taking a look at Dominic Solanke at 28/1 and Ollie Watkins at 25/1. Watkins was narrowly behind Salah in npxG per 90 last season.

Solanke netted 19 goals for Bournemouth in 2023/24 and will be managed by Thomas Frank, who had Yoane Wissa third in npxG last term and saw Bryan Mbeumo find the net 20 times.

With a more talented squad, could Frank get Solanke up towards 25 goals if he stays fit for the full season?

Premier League Golden Boot Prediction: Haaland Is Value

Haaland is a good value bet at 11/10. We didn’t expect to ever see him at odds this long when he took the Premier League by storm in his debut campaign.

Uncertainty at Liverpool makes it difficult to choose between their three candidates, though Ekitike is an intriguing option following his breakout season in the Bundesliga.

You can talk yourself into Watkins or Solanke. Both are worth consideration as an each-way bet.