Revealed: Rangers edge title rivals in post-split performance

Gers see lesser drop-off in points-per-game than Celtic and Hearts after MD33, according to analysis of 21st century data

Latest research from William Hill has revealed that Rangers may hold an edge over their title rivals Celtic and Hearts following the league split.

Analysis of all points earned and goals scored since the first league split in 2000-01 show the Gers have only a marginal 5.43% drop off in points-per-game after Matchday 33, while Celtic (12.7%) and Hearts (26.9%) see a much greater reduction in their points gained at the business end of the season.

Accounting for the same percentage change in points earned this campaign, Rangers (79 points) would edge Hearts (78 points) to the William Hill Premiership title by a point, with Celtic (76 points) finishing third.

Rangers also outperform their rivals in terms of goals scored, with a 6.86% increase in goals-per-game after MD33, while Celtic (-0.42%) and Hearts (-19.55%) see a goalscoring decline after the league split.

William Hill Premiership – Outrights:

Rangers – EVS
Celtic – 2/1
Hearts – 13/5

Key data (since 2000-01 season):

Hearts

Hearts regular season point average: 1.45
Hearts post-season point average: 1.06
% differential: -26.9%

2025-26 points tally with average % change = 78 (70+8)

Hearts regular season goals per game: 1.33
Hearts post-season goals per game: 1.07
% differential: -19.55%

Rangers

Rangers regular season point average: 2.21
Rangers post-season point average: 2.09
% differential: -5.43%

2025-26 points tally with average % change = 79 (69+10)

Rangers regular season goals per game: 2.04
Rangers post-season goals per game: 2.18
% differential: +6.86%

Celtic

Celtic regular season point average: 2.44
Celtic post-season point average: 2.13
% differential: -12.7%

2025-26 points tally with average % change = 76 (67+9)

Celtic regular season goals per game: 2.39
Celtic post-season goals per game: 2.38
% differential: -0.42%

Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “As we enter the back straight of what has been a fascinating William Hill Premiership title race, the three-way battle between Hearts, Rangers and Celtic looks too close to call.

“We’ve taken a deep dive into the data across the last 25 seasons since the first league split in 2000-01 to see which of the trio performs best after MD33 with some fascinating results.

“Rangers see a lesser drop-off in points-per-game than either Celtic or Hearts, and actually improve their numbers in front of goal – finding the net on average more times per game in the clutch matches.

“But as ever, the devil is in the detail, and with league leaders Hearts already enjoying a record-breaking campaign with more points at this stage than at any time since the turn of the century, and Celtic scoring their fewest goals this millennium, this enthralling campaign may yet still throw up more surprises.

“Our projections may give Rangers the edge and the Ibrox side are our even-money favourites, but it’s definitely too soon to be writing off either Celtic (2/1) or Hearts (13/5) for a thrilling title victory.”

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*