Golf
DP World Tour Championship 2026 Predictions & Tips: McIlroy favourite to make it four
Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm lead William Hill’s betting for the DP World Tour Championship, with both looking to add another Earth Course victory to their records.
McIlroy is the 7/2 favourite, while Rahm is available at 6/1 after winning last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship.
McIlroy is our main selection, but Rahm’s combination of recent winning form and outstanding course history makes him the obvious danger in the season finale.
Tournament preview
The DP World Tour season concludes at the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai, where the top 50 available players from the season-long rankings compete for the tournament title. The Race to Dubai and the allocation of 10 PGA Tour cards also reach their conclusion, adding further significance to the final leaderboard.
Eugenio Chacarra leads the Race to Dubai, with McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Jayden Schaper, Aaron Rai and Rahm among those still pursuing the season-long prize. The tournament and Race to Dubai are separate competitions, so winning in Dubai does not automatically guarantee finishing top of the rankings.
For outright betting purposes, the focus is on two players with exceptional records at this venue. McIlroy and Rahm have each won the DP World Tour Championship three times, giving them a compelling advantage in experience and familiarity.
Rory McIlroy – 7/2
McIlroy is the favourite for good reason. His three victories here came in 2012, 2015 and 2024, and he went close again last year before losing a play-off to Matt Fitzpatrick. That record demonstrates how consistently his game translates to the Earth Course.
His recent ball-striking is equally encouraging. McIlroy finished second at Wentworth and third in Abu Dhabi, leading the field for strokes gained tee to green on both occasions. He also topped the off-the-tee standings last week, suggesting his biggest weapon is in excellent shape for this long layout.
There is additional motivation in the Race to Dubai. McIlroy is chasing an eighth season-long title, which would draw him level with Colin Montgomerie’s record. With Chacarra ahead in the standings, he has a clear incentive to attack rather than settle for another respectable finish.
At 7/2, there is little room for a disappointing week, but the combination of course history and current ball-striking makes him the most likely winner. The key will be converting enough of the opportunities his driving and approach play should create.
Prediction: Rory McIlroy to win at 7/2.
Jon Rahm – 6/1
Rahm arrives with the strongest immediate form line after his victory in Abu Dhabi. That success moved him to sixth in the Race to Dubai and kept alive an outside chance of claiming the season-long title, although he would need another win and favourable results elsewhere.
His Earth Course record is outstanding. Rahm won on debut in 2017, finished fourth in 2018 and returned to win in both 2019 and 2022. Three victories from those four appearances underline just how naturally the venue suits him.
The Spaniard’s appeal is straightforward: he has already demonstrated the ability to win here through different combinations of power, approach play and putting. His 2022 success included second-place rankings for strokes gained approach, tee to green, around the green and putting – an exceptionally complete performance.
At 6/1, Rahm offers a bigger return than McIlroy without requiring much imagination to build a winning case. The preference remains narrowly with Rory, whose recent tee-to-green numbers are particularly persuasive, but Rahm is the strongest alternative.
Prediction: Jon Rahm to challenge for the title, with 6/1 the supporting outright selection.
Odds are correct as supplied and subject to change.
