Golf
FedEx St. Jude Championship preview: It could be Jason’s Day at TPC Southwind
With the regular season complete on the PGA Tour we’re now into FedEx Cup territory as the top 70 players from this year take to TPC Southwind for the first tournament in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
With all of the world’s best in action it is sure to be an exciting show and we preview the key contenders below.
Tyrrell Hatton – 25/1
Having been a shoo-in for a top 30 spot in the FedEx Cup rankings for many weeks now, Tyrrell Hatton has used the time after The Open to recoup and get fully fit for the FedEx Cup playoffs which begin at the St. Jude Championship.
Stats may not tell the whole story but they certainly do not lie in Tyrrell Hatton’s case as the Englishman is in red-hot form. He has finished T12 or better in all of his last five PGA Tour tournaments, including for T6 or better finishes. His major form has also been more than respectable as he finished T20 at The Open, preceded by the PGA Championship and US Open where he finished T15 and T27 respectively, proving that he can cope on the big stage.
At 25/1 Hatton is not amongst the short-priced favourite but with his strong driving, tee-to-green, and putting game playing perfectly into the hands of the TPC Southwind course he could present great value at this week’s tournament.
Hatton ranks 22nd on the tour when it comes to a combination of distance and accuracy with the driver and driving accuracy is a key component to success at this long 7,244-yard course, flanked by tricky to negotiate Bermuda grass rough. The tough conditions that await missed fairways and greens mean that getting the ball from tee-to-green efficiently is essential, and with a ranking of seventh on the tour for strokes gained from tee-to-green Hatton is a master of the art.
Drive for show putt for dough is what many say, and the Englishman is certainly no slouch with the flatstick. Hatton combine his elite tee-to-green play with a ranking of sixth on the tour for strokes gained with the putter. Long putts can be a driving factor towards picking up extra birdies or saving pars on holes where something has gone wrong, and with a ratio that sees him sink almost one in five from 20-25 feet Hatton certainly knows how to save a score, something that could make the difference up against the best of the best.
Jason Day – 28/1
Jason Day is one of the most experienced golfers on the PGA Tour and after a period of a few years in which he never looked to get truly into competition for any sort of title, this season’s resurgence has seen the Australian make an outstanding comeback and he looks to have a good chance of continuing on the same trajectory here.
Day’s return to form this season was capped when securing a one shot victory at the AT&T Byron Nelson back in May, his first win on the PGA Tour for over five years. That success was followed by three missed cuts and a T45 finish, but that dip in form can be excused when you consider the emotional drain of a once great player returning to form for the first time in half a decade to win one of the biggest PGA Tour events.
It has not all been doom and gloom since that win, far from it in fact. Day put in an exceptional performance at The Open to finished T2 at seven under par on an incredibly testing Royal Liverpool course. Day looked to be back in the groove at the final Major of the year and even completing the runner-up grand slam as he has now finished runner-up at every Major.
Day’s form of old, which he now appears to be replicating, shows that he has all the tools to go well at TPC Southwind. Firstly, he has been victorious at this stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs before when he won this tournament back in 2015, then named ‘The Barclays’. He also has reason to be confident round this specific course as he recorded an impressive T6 finish here in the 2020 St. Jude Championship, not to mention that his game in 2020 was a shadow of its current state.
Day has the stats to back up his place as one of the shorter-priced outsiders at 28/1 and that could provide great value given his prominence in so many short-game statistics. As important as distance and accuracy with driver and irons is on this long Bermuda grass course you still can’t put a price on an elite short game, and Jason Day certainly possesses that.
The Australian ranks 14th in the world for strokes gained with the putter and that can easily be what makes or breaks a round. Just because he has such a great short game it would be foolish to think that Day can’t get the business done from tee-to-green, in fact he does it better than most. Starting from the tee, Day ranks 12th on the tour when combining driving distance and accuracy. Once in the fairway he has some elite approach play to get him from tee-to-green, and he can really capitalise on par fives as he ranks 14th for approaches from over 275 yards. These metrics couple together nicely to leave him ranking 19th on the tour from tee-to-green.
If Day is really back to his best, it would be no surprise to see him out in the final group on Sunday evening and the Australian could just get his hands on a third career FedEx Cup playoff trophy.
