The PGA Tour heads to Mexico this week for the Mayakoba Golf Classic – the final stroke play event of 2020.

Since 2013, the worst winning score at El Camaleon Golf Club has been 17 under-par and with the last two winners – Matt Kuchar and Brendon Todd – breaking 20 under, this is an event where birdies and not pars are going to be what gets it done.

Expect to see conditions conducive to low-scoring over the next four days and here’s our look ahead to the action, which starts on Thursday.

Home favourite Ancer to go well

 One might argue that playing in your home country brings an unwanted level of pressure and perhaps it will, but that still doesn’t take away from the fact that ABRAHAM ANCER looks poised for a big week. Although still yet to break through on the PGA Tour, the Mexican did win the Australian Open in 2018, so knows how to get the job done. And it’s not like the 29-year-old hasn’t been in contention on the PGA Tour either with 14 top-10s since 2018.

Those are fairly impressive numbers and Ancer seems to have turned a corner in the past year with a fourth, two runners-up finishes as well as impressive showing on his debut at Augusta earlier this month. As mentioned, the winning scores over the years at this event suggest we are in for a birdie fest and that looks sure to suit the Mexican, as in those two runner-up finishes he finished on 24 under at the American Express and 21 under at the RBC Heritage. Add to that that he was 20 under when coming fourth at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open a couple of months ago, and there are clear signs that Ancer is comfortable when attacking golf is the order of the day, backed up by the fact he’s 34th this season for total birdies.

He’s also got some solid form at El Camaleon with three top-25s from five starts there, including two top-10s in 2018 and in last year’s tournament. Of course, there is pressure playing well in your home country, but Ancer comes across as someone who will thrive on that and he looks a big player this week at 18/1.

Thomas clearly the one to beat

Make no mistake, if red-hot favourite Justin Thomas brings his A-game this week, he’ll be a tough man to stop. The 27-year-old has seemingly done all but win in recent months, having just been pipped at the post by Patrick Cantlay at the Zozo Championship, before a disappointing weekend at the Masters saw him slip out of contention. The course in Mexico won’t be unfamiliar to him having played it in 2015, where he finished 23rd, and he’ll be keen to end his 2020 on the best possible note.

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