Mexico Open preview: Hitting the strip could be Vegas’ key to success

As the West Coast Swing draws to a close, the PGA Tour takes to Vallarta, Mexico as a noticeably depleted field lines up this week.

Many of the Tour’s biggest names have chosen to pass up the opportunity to get around Vidanta Vallarta, with last year’s victor Tony Finau heading the 132-strong field.

A familiar favourite of our picks returns with what could be his best chance of the year, joined by a south-American who is searching for his first win on the Tour since 2017.

We walk you through our selections for the Mexico Open below.

Keith Mitchell 22/1

This week sees the return of the tried, tested and trusted Keith Mitchell. Usually anywhere from 50-66/1 for any given tournament on the PGA Tour, Mitchell finds himself at the dizzy heights of 22/1 as he sits joint-third in the market, in a field missing the majority of the Tours’ biggest names.

The weakened field will certainly play into Mitchell’s hands, but perhaps more importantly so will the Vidanta Villarta course. Effective round here are those who can get from tee-to-green effectively, with emphasis on driving accuracy and long approach shots.

Mitchell is more than capable from tee-to-green, ranking 20th on the Tour with a notable amount of those ahead of him not playing this week. It is off the tee where he really excels, ranking fourth for strokes gained in that category.

His putting has been less than impressive this year, but one key difference this week could prove key to his success. He currently ranks 91st on the Tour for strokes gained with the flatstick, but that is for performances on the notoriously tricky Poe Annua grass greens. This week we switch to the paspalum surfaces which should be much more suited to Mitchell, as should the long, open course in general.

His iron play has been frustratingly unreliable in recent years, but this course requires largely long irons and that is where Mitchell has shown his best efforts. When looking at approaches from 200+ yards he ranks fourth for strokes gained and that should allow him to pick up more birdie opportunities that a lot of the field.

At 22/1 Mitchell is more than a shade shorter than we’re used to, but he is certainly value for that price as one of the top contenders this week. In what looks to be a relatively open field, Mitchell’s power and class should propel him comfortably into the eight places on offer with William Hill, whilst there is every chance he could capitalise on such a great opportunity to pick up his second win on the PGA Tour.

Jhonattan Vegas 60/1

Jhonattan Vegas looked a golfer reborn at the Phoenix Open two weeks ago and that gives hope that he could finally be returning to some of his better form. The Venezuelan is by no means a nobody on the PGA Tour, with three wins to his name, but he has certainly faded into the background since his win at the 2017 Canadian Open.

Vegas was cut from his first three tournaments this year, a similar theme to the years previous when he failed to build on previous successes. However, his performance in Phoenix certainly caught the eye and, had he not shot a final round 71, he could have been right amongst the leaders on Sunday.

This lesser field and expansive course play right into Vegas’ hands, making him look like good value as one of the middle pack in the betting at 60/1. His ranking of sixth on the Tour for strokes gained off the tee is an eye-catching one, especially given that he has not been at his best all season.

Combine this with his strong long-distance approach play, most notably between 175-200 yards where he ranks eighth on the Tour, and you have a recipe for success on this course.

A large portion of the field do not have any winning experience and with three wins to his name, Vegas is one of the few players who truly knows how to get the job done when push comes to shove late on Sunday.

At 60/1 he is not considered one of the frontrunners in the betting and that is largely down to the fact that he ‘could’ rather than ‘will’ go well here. However, if he can find even some of his better from then he will surely be right in the mix and certainly good enough to nudge into the eight places on offer at William Hill.