PGA Championship
PGA Championship preview: Count on Cantlay to finally deliver on Major stage
Although the USPGA is probably the fourth most prestigious Major in terms of heritage, it’s a tournament that has certainly made up for it in drama in recent years. From Mito Pereira’s final hole implosion last year to Phil Mickelson’s scarcely believable win in 2021, this is an event that has kept us on the edge of our seats right until the final putt.
This year’s contest is hosted at Oak Hill in Rochester, New York – the scene of Jason Dufner’s one and only Major win a decade ago. That week we saw a thorough test with thin fairways, treacherous rough and small greens and while it’s never bad to see the pros struggle, it wasn’t much of a watch in all honesty. 10 years later and we return to a course that is much more befitting of the modern game with 600 trees removed as well as several bunkers added to give the course more character and pizazz. It will play long at 7,394 yards too and it will probably feel longer than that with low temperatures likely throughout the week. It wasn’t that long ago that snow was in situ meaning that while the rough might not be as bad as you might find at a US Open, it will certainly be as thick, putting a big onus on accuracy.
Oak Hill looks tailormade for Cantlay
With that in mind, Patrick Cantlay screams the sort of player that will go well here and he looks a very solid proposition at 16/1. Cantlay might just be the best driver of the ball on the planet at the moment with strokes-gained-off-the-tee in his last six measured starts reading 2, 3, 12, 3 and 7. He’s ranked third overall in that category and perhaps even more important is the fact he’s ranked second in total driving, which, in essence, means he’s long and straight off tee – assets which will serve him well at Oak Hill.
While the top-three in the world are rightly the top-three, few can begrudge Cantlay being next best mainly due to the fact that he’s a player that doesn’t have any weaknesses in his game. With this in mind, when one area dips it’s glaringly obvious because all others are so often virtually perfect. He’s been solid with his approach play for a while, and while that dipped at Quail Hollow last time out, the Wells Fargo isn’t a tournament he’d play normally had it not been for its elevated status this year. He did finish 21st however – an improvement on his previous two starts there – and perhaps even more significantly, it was a timely return to form on the greens.
The putter was the club that prevented him from winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational or the Genesis – a two-week run where nobody was better tee-to-green. But back on bentgrass, a surface which all six of his solo victories have come on, he should be very hopeful of continuing the form he showed at Quail Hollow. He seems particularly comfortable in this part of America having won four times in north-eastern states and furthermore his best Major finish came at Bethpage Black – another course in this part of the country.
Max respect for Homa and Hatton
Like Cantlay, Max Homa putts really well on bentgrass greens and while the world number six’s Major record isn’t great, this is a course that looks more than likely to suit. He has bags of form on long, difficult and classical courses that require all areas of one’s game to be solid and given the fact he won this year’s Farmers Insurance Open in cool temperatures, the likely cold weather won’t bother him. Rain is also forecast and again given the fact he won the Wells Fargo title at a very wet TPC Potomac, he shouldn’t have any concerns if the weather does turn bad.
A Major is very much next on the agenda for a player who now surely believes he’s capable of breaking through and while he hasn’t really contended on the biggest stage, a strong start at last year’s US Open and a solid 13th at the PGA show he’s not far off. Also it’s interesting that three of his five victories have come after a top-10 finish, so the fact he was inside the top-10 at the Wells Fargo bodes well.
For someone as solid off the tee, quotes of 33/1 could look big come Sunday evening.
Complete the selections with Tyrrell Hatton at 33/1. The Englishman heads to Oak Hill in very solid form having tied for third at the Wells Fargo and tied for fifth at the Byron Nelson last time out. That followed a solid tie for 19th at Hilton Head and a tie for 34th at Augusta – his second-best finish at the Masters. Augusta is a course that Hatton openly admits he doesn’t like, so that was a more than solid effort and further evidence he’s beginning to crack Major championship golf.
He has five top 10s in Majors, two of which have come at this event and he was 13th at Southern Hills 12 months ago. Interestingly, two of those other top 10s were at The Open where temperatures are often low and uncomfortable. With that in mind, the cold conditions shouldn’t bother him at all and he should go well at a course that should suit. Don’t forget he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 4-under total a few years ago, so he doesn’t mind if grinding out a score is required.
Being ranked sixth off-the-tee bodes well around Oak Hill and with a solid record in the northeast of America – sixth at Shinnecock Hills and tie for 10th at Baltusrol – he looks well worth chancing this week.
