PGA Tour Championship Round 4 Predictions: Hovland Heads Betting Ahead Of Sunday’s Final Round

Viktor Hovland is the golf betting favourite at 11/8 heading into the final round of the Tour Championship on Sunday.

Hovland has a one-shot lead over Ryan Gerard, who is two strokes ahead of a four-man group in a tie for third. Currently in that quartet, Scottie Scheffler still has the second-shortest odds to win this event.

Saturday’s Risers

Rory McIlroy had a turbulent first 36 holes at East Lake, but he got white-hot with his putter on Saturday to shoot 63 and move to -10. He’s five shots off the lead and tied with Cameron Young for seventh.

Enduring a torrid start to the week, Robert MacIntyre matched McIlroy’s 63. The Scot is still only four under for the tournament.

Hovland, Adam Scott, Ludvig Åberg, and Si Woo Kim all went five under. Scott and Åberg are in the group, along with Scheffler and Chris Gotterup, tied for third.

Of the players to shoot 65 or better on Saturday, Si Woo was the only player who wasn’t scorching hot on the greens. His success came from pinpoint approach play.

Hovland’s Challengers

Hovland is firmly in the middle of the pack in strokes gained tee to green. The Norwegian has largely relied on exceptional putting this week. Thirteen players have been better tee to green, with Gerard, Gotterup, and Scheffler as the only players on more than a stroke gained by that metric.

Russell Henley has generally played good golf until he’s got on the greens. He’s likely too far back to win this, but he’s going to be in the mix for the top five late on Sunday.

The all-around play of Åberg suggests he could be in contention, though we all know the Swede has had his Sunday woes. It would be foolish to write off McIlroy after his virtuoso display on Saturday.

Best Bets

• Chris Gotterup To Win (9/1)
• Rory McIlroy Top Five Finish (9/4 – Price Boost)
• Russell Henley Top Five Finish (5/1)

Gotterup has been the best player off the tee in this event and leads the field in strokes gained tee to green. He’s a three-time winner in 2026, so we know he can get it done on a Sunday.

Only three strokes off the lead and showcasing real consistency this week, Gotterup’s price feels pretty generous. The door will be left ajar if Hovland cools down even slightly on the greens.

McIlroy has been great off the tee throughout the week. Putting and around-the-green play let him down in the first two rounds, but Saturday showed how low he can go on this course. He’s two shots off fifth.

Henley is typically an elite putter. The first round was out of character. He was much better on the greens on Saturday and ranks in the top five in strokes gained tee to green. Accuracy off the tee has also seen the American grade favourably in off-the-tee metrics. Another 66 or below round is very much in play.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*