Golf
RBC Canadian Open preview: Back Charley to be quick Hoff the mark
From Texas to Ontario, the PGA Tour makes a 1500-mile trip across North America for the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ancaster.
As Davis Riley lifted his first ever Tour title, golf took the back seat in what was a sombre week for the sport following the tragic passing of Grayson Murray.
With Rory McIlroy the only representative from the OWGR top 10, this week’s field looks less daunting than the previous few tournaments, with Scottie Scheffler’s absence particularly notable.
We have another two picks whom we think could exploit the lack of competitive depth this week and make good value of their odds.
Find our picks for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open below.
Shane Lowry 20/1
For the second time in three weeks, Shane Lowry finds himself in and amongst our selections. A 90/1 each-way place at the PGA Championship was enough for us to bring him back again here, albeit at a much shorter price given the state of this week’s field.
Lowry’s performance at Valhalla was nothing short of incredible as he snuck into the top six via a record-equalling 62 in the third round. Most impressive was his putting, gaining almost 10 strokes on the field with the flatstick over the four days.
Hamilton only plays as a par-70, with 12 par-4s, four par-3s and two par-5s, but has been increased by 184 yards since McIlroy won here back in 2019 – now playing 7084 yards. With distance not posing much of a problem, strokes gained on the approach, accuracy off-the-tee and par-4 scoring will be at the forefront of any good performance.
Luckily for Lowry, these are just some of the areas in which he excels. He has the most accurate driver on Tour with 78.13% of his drives finding the fairway, whilst he ranks 10th on the Tour for strokes gained approaching the green. He combines these two tidily to be the 16th best on Tour from tee-to-green, whilst his putter is ever-heating up.
Fewer par-5s will certainly suit the Irishman as he ranks 121st for birdie or better scores on the longer holes, whilst he ranks third on par-4s, so this course really suits him down to a tee.
At a shorter than usual 20/1, Lowry sits fifth in the betting but still at an attractive enough price. He has already finished in the 8 places available with William Hill four times this season, including twice in his last three outings, so he’ll certainly expect to be in and amongst the action come Sunday afternoon.
Charley Hoffman 150/1
Our bigger-priced selection this week comes in the form of PGA Tour veteran Charley Hoffman. Since turning pro in 2000, the American has racked up over 500 appearances, finishing in the top 10 on 60 separate occasions.
Looking back to his best on occasion this year Hoffman has had a slightly mixed bag of results, with his standout performances seeing him lose in a play-off at the Phoenix Open as well as finishing T4 at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Hoffman is a master of short approach shots, which could prove pivotal round this track. The American ranks fourth on the Tour for approaches from 50-75 yards, 14th from 50-125 and 22nd from 100-125.
His previous tournament form is also worth noting and is possibly his strongest asset heading into this year’s edition. Hoffman has played this tournament nine times, missing the cut just twice and recording three T7 or better finishes, including a narrow play-off loss back in 2017.
At 150/1 he could provide great value for someone who has finished in the 8 places available with William Hill three times, whilst his recent form suggests that a fifth career win is not out of the question.
For those seeking serious value, another play with Hoffman could be the first round leader market. Ranking 19th on the Tour for first round scoring average, he is somewhat of a fast starter and the 100/1 about him to be the clubhouse leader come Thursday evening surely can’t be ignored.
