Ryder Cup preview: All roads lead to narrow European victory in Rome

After what has seemed like a never-ending wait, the 2023 Ryder Cup is finally upon us. As Team Europe look to overturn what was a painful defeat in 2021, Team USA will be hoping to gain their first victory on European soil since 1993.

Whatever happens, it is sure to be a thrilling three days of golf, so join us in our day-by-day preview of the 2023 Ryder Cup.

We take a deep dive into each day below.

Latest Ryder Cup betting odds at William Hill

Day One

No one will know the pairings chosen by Luke Donald and Zach Johnson until the players step up to the tee, but we have devised some provisional pairings below as we take a look through the action that Friday has to offer.

Foursomes

As always, the Ryder Cup kicks off with the Friday morning foursomes. Europe flew out the gates last time out when they shot into a 1-0 lead with Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia winning the first match of the tournament, but they would ultimately lose the opening foursomes 3-1.

Foursomes are a 2v2 style match where one pairing from each team competes playing alternate shots on every hole, only using one hole per team.

We can see John Rahm leading the charge for Europe again, partnered by Tyrrell Hatton, a pairing which we saw in the Friday four-balls in 2021 and more recently playing together in the first two rounds of the BMW PGA Championship. At odds of 10/11, we are backing these two to get Europe off to a flying start and make Europe the first team to go 1 up.

It was Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele who starred for Team USA in the Friday foursomes last year as they won their match 5&3 and they could form a formidable pairing again.

With the USA bringing the better foursomes form into this tournament, and without the pressure of the home crowd, it is hard to bet against them. We could see a similar story to last time here and  we see the best value in a Friday Foursomes score of USA 2.5 – 1.5 Europe.

Four-balls      

The four-balls are another 2v2 competition but this time in a better ball format where the pair will play one ball, choosing which of their shots to use on every shot.

Europe failed to win a Friday four-ball in 2021 but we could see the inexperienced yet hugely talented Ludvig Aberg partnered with a man who possesses a wealth of experience and talent in Rory McIlroy. These two could form a formidable pairing in what we see being a tied Friday four-ball competition.

It was Xander Schauffele who was on form for Team USA once again in the Friday four-balls for Team USA and Friday could prove to be a big day for him again this year and a big performance from him and other will be crucial to USA coming out on top on day one at 11/10.

Day Two

Following the same format as day one, day two will consist of the foursomes competition followed by the four-balls in a day that will begin to shape the direction of this year’s Ryder Cup competition.

Foursomes

Day two is where it becomes harder to predict the pairings as some players will have shown on day one that they could do with a rest or are simply not at it, but we still have a couple of pairings who we think could shine on Saturday.

Ludvig Aberg’s involvement will be highly dependent on his first day’s performance due to his inexperience and youth, but that could mean he will be brimming with confidence after a strong day one showing.

Should that be the case, we could see him being paired with fellow Scandinavian Viktor Hovland, who is one of the most in-form players in the world right now. The two are both young, likeable characters who already have experience playing with each other having been paired together during the BMW PGA Championship. Should Aberg perform as hoped then his odds of 7/2 for top rookie could look great value after Saturday morning.

Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas were the talk of Saturday morning in 2021 and that is likely to be a pairing we see again given that Thomas’ selecetion does not appear to be form based. Nevertheless, when these two get in their groove there are few better pairings and they could be crucial in USA’s effort to keep the trophy in their hands on Saturday morning, but we see Europe taking the first session on day two by a score of 3-1 at 15/4.

Four-balls

In the 2021 Ryder Cup, the Saturday four-balls provided Team Europe’s only tied session of the entire competition. This will offer some form of positivity and it is at this point that we could see Team Europe’s cohesion and team spirit really start turn the screw.

With the better ball format taking some sense of pressure off, this is where we could see those alternative picks have their chance to shine, and Tommy Fleetwood is our pick to lead the Saturday afternoon European charge.

Fleetwood and Hovland were unsuccessful as a pairing on Saturday afternoon in 2021 and we could see the Englishman paired with his national neighbour in Bob McIntyre this time around. Both use a TaylorMade TP5x ball which always makes things easier in four-balls and they have a good relationship. Fleetwood has the Ryder Cup experience under his belt to guide Bob McIntyre through what is likely to be one of his only matches and these two could form a fun and formidable pairing.

Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau did the damage in this match for Team USA in 2021 and we could see Scheffler teaming up with a LIV man once again, but this time in the form of Brooks Koepka. Scheffler and Koepka work on a personal level with the PGA devotee showing his full support for the selection of the LIV player. These two will be Team USA’s best chance at overturning what we expect to be at slim European lead, or at least a level score as we have like the look of Team Europe to win day two at 6/5.

Day Three

Day Three is crunch time in the Ryder Cup, where all team efforts go out the window and it is down to each and every individual to play their part. The USA took the singles by storm last time out but we fancy Europe to reverse that form in Rome.

Singles

The final day of the Ryder Cup is a full day of singles play that sees all 12 players from each side pitted against each other in 1v1 match play.

Rory McIlroy is the only representative from Team Europe to have won a full point in last year’s singles, with Fleetwood and Hovland both tying their matches and Europe’s only other points coming via Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood.

McIlroy never seems to fly out of the blocks anymore but there is no doubt that he will be fully fired up by the time the singles roll around, and he could really excel here if he is at his scintillating best.

The two value picks from Team Europe who we will be watching closely are Hatton and Hovland. The Marco Simone course suits both players down to a tee and both are elite ball strikers who are more than a match for anyone on their day. Hovland was one who played every match for Team Europe in 2021 and having come on leaps and bounds since then he is likely to do so again, just another factor that boosts our interest in him to be the top combined points scorer at 9/1.

Hatton is less likely to play every match but he is not hard to motivate and with a strong team around him he should be able to put a lid on his outbursts and could post an impressive strike rate. Those factors make him of interest at 14/1 to be the top combined points scorer.

Team USA boast a plethora of individual talent and that looks to be their strongpoint, although it wouldn’t have to be particularly impressive to outdo their team cohesion.

Brian Harman is not one who has necessarily looked like thriving in the Team USA environment but he showed just how formidable a singles player he can be at The Open and this could really be where he comes into his own, but with his lack of matches likely to impact his chances at being the top overall points scorer, we look rather shrewdly to his odds of 8/11 to be the top left-handed points scorer.

Although Scheffler is statistically the best ball-striker, and best player everywhere but the greens, we simply can’t look past his stone-cold putter when it comes to his odds of 9/2 to be the top points scorer for Team USA. The singles is where the old phrase ‘drive for show, putt for dough’ really comes to the fore, and there are not many better with the flat stick in hand than Xander Schauffele. He is one of the elite putters on the PGA Tour and is one who could also play every match. He was unlucky to be paired against Rory McIlroy last time out and should he be given a more favourable opponent this time out his odds of 6/1 to be top American points scorer could provide good value.

So, who wins?

This is the question on everyone’s lips and is one that is often answered ‘Team USA’ by most in the lead up to the Ryder Cup, and that decision becomes slowly less confident as the tournament unfolds.

This year was no different up until very recently when the long-term favourites Team USA saw the gap in the market creep ever closer. Now, at odds of Evens, Team Europe are narrow favourites.

With all factors considered, we see it playing out like this. The Americans settle all of the hype among the European crowd by narrowly edging out day one, all is rosy in Zach Johnsons camp.

As day two unfolds, Team Europe start building some momentum and the cracks in the fragile nature of the ‘Team’ aspect of Team USA start to appear. Europe end day two with a slim lead.

As the players head into day three, the individually impeccable American’s will fancy their chances at turning the tide, but this young, hungry European squad will have other ideas. Ludvig Aberg and Rasmus Hojgaard will provide the youthful spark to ignite the European flame, with all roads leading to Rory McIlroy holing the winning putt in Rome. The parties will go long into the night as Europe celebrate their regaining of the Ryder Cup.