The Masters: All good things must come to a trend

My name is Toby Forward and I’m a Marketing Analyst at William Hill. I’m a huge golf fan so I’m analysing some easy-to-find Masters trends to give you my 2022 Masters winner prediction.

With just a matter of days until the start of the 86th edition of the Masters, excitement continues to build with several questions on golfing fans’ lips: Can Scottie Scheffler keep up his hot streak? Will Bryson DeChambeau’s explosive power tame the Augusta fairways? And will we see the return of the Tiger red on Sunday?

Despite solidly playing golf for the past six or so years, and around four to five times a week in my summer breaks from university, my handicap index is at 18.1. For the non-golfers out there, this essentially means my scorecard is full of bogeys (scoring one over par on each hole). However, I love golf. I love playing it, watching it and of course, betting on it.

The greatest show in golf

For me, the Masters is the stand-out tournament on the golf calendar. It’s the only Major played at the same course year after year, with 91 players battling out to win the iconic green jacket. The whole event oozes class. Whether it is the road up to the clubhouse lined by Magnolia trees, the Champions Dinner – where last year’s winner Hideki Matsuyama will be choosing the menu (and picking up the bill) – or the opening shot, usually played by a golf legend.

What do the trends say?

Working as an analyst for William Hill, I love looking at trends, so it’s no surprise that this is what I will be using to make my Masters pick. I’m going to be looking at five stats over the last 10 years to whittle down the field: age, world ranking, Masters experience, performance at the Masters and performance in the golf Majors.

Age isn’t just a number

Let’s look at the first trend: players’ age. Nine of the last 10 winners were under the age of 40. The exception to the rule was, of course, Tiger Woods in 2019! So, looking at the world top 50 (at the time of writing), this is where we say goodbye to Sergio Garcia, the 2017 champion.

Majors experience

The Masters is the most-coveted Major in golf, so to win it you need to control your nerves. So, now we move on to look at how the players have performed in the other Majors in the last two years. Nine out of 10 of the last winners had a top six in a Major in the previous two seasons. It’s here that we lose world number four Viktor Hovland, along with a few other big names. Of our original world top 50, we are now down to 21 players. Time to drill down further.

World ranking

Eight of the last 10 winners were in the world top 20 when they won the Masters. This suggests the cream usually rises to the top. So, we wave goodbye to last year’s runner-up Will Zalatoris and Im Sung-jae who both finished in second place on their Augusta debut. Only 14 players left.

All about Augusta

It seems that course experience is key to winning the green Jacket, with eight of the past 10 winners having competed in the Masters at least three times before. Time to lose another three players. Look away Bryson fans. World number one Scottie Scheffler and multiple Major winner Collin Morikawa are also crossed off the list.

Now we’re down to 11 players and unfortunately my next trend, a top-10 finish in the Masters, hits them all. Therefore, we’ve got to pick the winner out of these 11 players. For me, I’ve got a good feeling about Xander Schauffele (currently priced at 22/1). In his four previous attempts to win the green jacket, he has finished tied for second, tied for third, 17th and 50th. Currently ranked 10th in the world, let’s hope he can go one better than he did in 2019, where he lost out to…yes you guessed it, the GOAT…Tiger Woods.

So, there you have it, Xander Schauffele, 2022 Masters champion. Has a ring to it don’t you think?

This article was written by an employee of William Hill but doesn’t necessarily reflect the opinions of William Hill LTD