Golf
The Players Championship preview: Count on Cantlay at Sawgrass
While the four Majors are the jewel in the golfing crown, the Players Championship is perhaps the one that sits just a rung below.
Affectionately known as the ‘fifth Major’, this is a tournament that is one of the hardest to win given the depth in quality on the PGA Tour these days and the fact it’s played at TPC Sawgrass – Pete Dye’s best and arguably most intricate design.
It’s a course that doesn’t favour one specific player, with 2019 as a prime example. Granted, Rory McIlroy led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee, but runner-up Jim Furyk outscored him across the 16 par-fives. In the end, the difference between the two was a single shot, but these two polar opposite players showed what makes Sawgrass so invigorating.
In short, then, winners can come in all shapes and sizes here, and with that in mind, it seems sensible to have players on side who are strong in all areas.
Ignore Cantlay’s Sawgrass record
The first of those is Patrick Cantlay, who has a pretty shocking record at Sawgrass but really should excel around here given his game looks ideally suited to the rigours of the Florida track. The current world number four arrives here in confident mood after a third at the Genesis Invitational and a tie for fourth at Bay Hill last week. He ranked first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at Riviera and third last week, so his game is really trending in the right direction and he’ll be hopeful of improving on his dismal record at Sawgrass.
Things started okay for the American with a 22nd place finish in 2017 and a 23rd in 2018, but that only tells half the story as he was seventh through 54 holes before a disappointing Sunday saw him tumble down the leaderboard. He led after the opening round a year later, so it’s no real surprise that he has spoken very highly of Sawgrass and that he feels very comfortable around here.
Granted, he has missed the last three cuts, but he shot a five-under 67 in the opening round of the cancelled 2020 renewal so his supporters shouldn’t be that worried.
Cantlay is always one of the strongest in terms of bogey avoidance – a stat that previous winners here often do well in – and he’s one of those players that will be more than willing to find the middle of the green, two-putt and move on. His meticulous approach looks tailormade for this test and he’s a big player at 16/1.
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Homa of Max appeal
Another player it’s hard to get away from this week is Max Homa at 18/1. That’s a price that might seem short but Homa has established himself as one of the game’s elite. He has missed two cuts since the start of 2022 and this season has been particularly impressive with seven top 25s from eight appearances, including a runner-up finish at Riviera and two victories at the Fortinet Championship and Farmers Insurance Open.
He played nicely at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week and was briefly bang in contention before he fell away over the weekend, but it was another solid showing nonetheless. That was further evidence that Homa doesn’t seem to have off weeks anymore and he heads to Sawgrass in the form of his life.
As with Cantlay, this is a course that should suit as a 13th place finish showed last year. He got better as the week when on in 2022 and closed with a 66 suggesting he found out what was required around here. He ranks second in Strokes Gained: Total this season and his putting, which is eighth best this term, will also be a big factor, with several previous winners scoring highly in that category.
Belief has always been a big hinderance for Homa but he looks more confident than ever this season, and this looks another step up the ladder which is well within his capabilities.
The other two to consider are Keith Mitchell and Harris English.
Mitchell (50/1) has been playing nicely for a while now and was a good 13th in 2022 at this tournament. He’s driving the ball better than anyone on the PGA Tour this season and is one average putting week away from really contending.
Four missed cuts from his last six events don’t read well for English (80/1), but he bounced back to form last week at Bay Hill with a tie for second. He didn’t make a bogey during the final round and might just surprise a few at a big price.
