US Open Golf

US Open 2026: Can Tommy Fleetwood Prevail At Shinnecock Hills?

21 seconds ago

| BY Sam Cox

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is the venue for the 2026 edition of the US Open, which starts this Thursday and William Hill News have you covered with this extensive preview of the event.

Despite a relatively quiet first half of the year by his standards, Scottie Scheffler enters the tournament as the golf betting favourite ahead of perennial contenders Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.

US Open 2026 Best Bets:

Tommy Fleetwood To Win – Each Way (14/1 – Six Places)
J.J. Spaun – Top 10 Finish (9/2)
Russell Henley – Top 10 Finish (3/1)
Russell Henley – Top American (18/1)
Maverick McNealy – Top 10 Finish (13/2)
Adam Scott – Top 20 Finish (3/1)

This is the third time the US Open has been held at Shinnecock in the 21st century, following wins for Retief Goosen and Brooks Koepka in 2004 and 2018, respectively.

Scheffler, meanwhile, is chasing the Grand Slam. McIlroy can move ahead of Phil Mickelson, Nick Faldo, and Lee Trevino into a tie for seventh all-time with a win.

US Open Winner Odds

Scottie Scheffler: 6/1
Rory McIlroy: 11/1
Jon Rahm: 12/1
Tommy Fleetwood: 16/1
Xander Schauffele: 16/1
Matt Fitzpatrick: 16/1
Cameron Young: 18/1
Ludvig Åberg: 22/1
Bryson DeChambeu: 28/1
Tyrrell Hatton: 33/1

Course Credentials

Per Data Golf, Shinnecock has heavily favoured accuracy in its last two US Opens. It’s similar to links courses that golfers are used to taking on at The Open, but the scoring is typical of US Open golf, with only three under-par scores in five US Opens held at Shinnecock dating back to 1896.

McIlroy has reported the fairways are wider than at previous US Opens. Scottie Scheffler believes the greens are going to be incredibly difficult. Down the years, a high-class short game has been key for any golfer hoping to go low at Shinnecock.

With the challenges presented on the greens, it’s no surprise that making them in regulation had a strong correlation with success eight years ago. It’s a longer than average course, so distance is required, particularly on the extended par 4s and a 250-yard-plus par 3.

All in all, Shinnecock seems like a course that will challenge every facet of a golfer’s game. There’s no question of a lottery here – golfers need to be excelling in every area to stand a chance of winning the third major of the year.

Shinnecock Data

Oakmont in 2025 is the only course that’s been more challenging around the greens than Shinnecock was in 2018. Generous fairways have been widened further, but ending up in the rough was incredibly detrimental, so golfers are going to have a constant trade-off between accuracy and distance.

The greens are in Augusta National territory. According to Data Golf, only four courses have ever been more difficult on lag putts than Shinnecock was in 2018. Off-the-tee metrics didn’t have much of an impact on overall scoring eight years ago, with approach play proving to be far more of an important indicator.

The main conclusions that can be drawn when making US Open predictions:

Approach play is crucial
High hitters will benefit from being able to stop the ball on greens
Driving distance isn’t necessarily a needle mover
Strong similarities with links golf and the Masters
Difficult around-the-green shots
Wider fairways could tempt more aggressive tee shots

Selections

Tommy Fleetwood To Win – Each Way (14/1 – Six Places)

Could this be when Tommy Fleetwood finally wins his first major? A links-style course is in the Englishman’s favour. He’s one of the best short game players in the world and, aside from some off-the-tee mishaps at the Canadian Open, is a highly accurate driver.

Fleetwood was fourth at the Memorial Tournament and fifth at the Truist Championship. High-profile disappointments at the two previous majors and the Arnold Palmer Invitational were no more than setbacks for Fleetwood – he was second at this golf course in 2018 and could be ready to go one place better this time around.

J.J. Spaun Top 10 Finish (9/2)

Yes, J.J. Spaun missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the Masters. Spaun’s only top 20 finish at a major was in this event 12 months ago. It’s understandable that he’s an outsider at Shinnecock Hills, but Spaun has quietly finished in the top 12 in three of his last four events.

That includes a tied for fifth at the Truist Championship and a tie for sixth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. No one on the PGA Tour has been better on approach than Spaun over the last three months and there were positive signs with his around-the-green play at the Memorial Tournament.

Russell Henley Top 10 Finish (3/1), Henley Top American (18/1)

Russell Henley finished third at the Masters. Comparisons with The Open are a positive sign for the American, given that he’s had consecutive top 10 finishes at The Open to go with a pair of strong showings at the last two US Opens.

Henley won the Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s got strong history on challenging courses, and his driving accuracy stands him in good stead. We know he’s one of the shorter hitters on the PGA Tour, but that shouldn’t make too much of an impact this weekend.

Maverick McNealy Top 10 Finish (13/2)

Maverick McNealy’s majors record is nothing to get excited about. He’s never finished in the top 10, so this might seem like a stretch. The 30-year-old has placed 18th in the last two majors, however, and joins Scheffler as one of two players to rank in the top 20 in around-the-green and putting in 2026.

A lack of driving accuracy is the biggest concern here. McNealy avoided too many off-the-tee errors en route to a 10th place in the Memorial Tournament, though, and his approach play has been excellent over his last couple of outings.

Adam Scott Top 20 Finish (3/1)

Adam Scott has been there and done it. He had a top 10 finish at The Open in 2024 and has been in the top 25 in five of his last six events. Only Scheffler and Spaun can boast better approach play over the last three months, and Scott is ahead of Koepka, Aaron Rai, and Harris English in total strokes gained across that period.

The Australian has had his difficulties with the US Open across his long career. Still, a high level of approach play gives him a real chance of contending if the putter can get hot.