By Thomas Reynolds
Last Updated: 3rd May 2019
Newmarket’s Rowley Mile hosts the first Classic of the season on Saturday and there are some eyebrow-raising draw trends you need to be savvy to before you do your 2,000 Guineas betting.
While the rails on the course may be moved regularly, these trends continue to abide, with Magna Grecia, currently second-favourite at odds of 9/2, falling particularly foul.
Read on to get the nod on the most desirable starting stall real estate, as well as our 2,000 Guineas betting tips from among the best-berthed beasts.
2000 Guineas betting draw trends: the lower the better
Over the last 17 editions of the season’s first Classic, just two colts, Gleaneagles and the incredible Sea The Stars, have won from stall 13 or higher.
As well as Magna Grecia (17), this isn’t tremendous news for Name The Wind, Sporting Chance, Azano, Dark Vision, Shine So Bright and King Of Change.
With the exception of the Aidan O’Brien runner, their gate numbers are reflected in odds of 33/1 of higher. Further examination of winners’ berths suggest being in the desirable dozen isn’t enough to constitute a plum draw.
Six of the last nine winners of the race came from stalls six or lower, with the exceptions all clear Ballydoyle first-stringers in Saxon Warrior, Gleaneagles and Camelot.
Plum status is reserved for the one, two and three berths, home to Madhmoon, Emaraaty Ana and Skardu respectively. Seven of the last 17 winners of the colts’ mile Classic, a cool 41 per cent have landed the odds from one the first three stalls.
At the time of writing, Ten Sovereigns (stall five) is shading both in-house favouritism and that of the 2000 Guineas betting as a whole at 7/2, but not by a margin that isn’t capable of being usurped if the dosh comes for Magna Grecia.
Drawing upon what we now know: 2000 Guineas betting tips
Breaking from trap five is a boon from Ten Sovereigns, but having raced over no further than 6f as a juvenile, the son of sprinter No Nay Never, out of a mare by speedster Exceed And Excel, doesn’t exactly ooze staying power from a pedigree point of view.
Instead, given his ideal berth, Skardu is fancied to land a first 2,000 Guineas for both William Haggas and quality pilot James Doyle at odds of 7/1.
Twice a winner over course and distance, the Shamardal gelding took renowned trial the Craven by a going-away neck last time out, on what was just his second career start.
Exhibiting a change of gear and stamina in equal measure, he could have bags of improvement left in him and at an each-way price, he’s our main 2,000 Guineas betting pick.