Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Ignore Mctigue at your peril in the Morebattle

This is one of the more low-key weekends of the season and no wonder as trainers put the finishing touches to their Cheltenham hopes. It’s always a nervous time and the days go on that bit longer for everyone involved as you just want to get them there in one piece.

Who’d be a clerk?

I can’t remember a stranger year for weather. There was the dry spell at the beginning of the season, then the cold patch, with only a bit of rain in between. It’s been a complete nightmare for clerks of the course and I sympathise with them. Who knows what’s going to happen ahead of Cheltenham? It now looks like there’s going to be snow next week, so that’s another curveball for John Pullin. Let’s hope Mother Nature is kind and we get some decent good-to-soft ground with no excuses for anyone.

Newbury, Saturday

There are only five runners in the opening Veterans’ Chase (1:40) and MISTER MALARKY is the one for me. He was a close second to Musical Slave at Exeter last time and that’s the strongest recent piece of form. Cyclop looks the main danger.

The Greatwood Gold Cup (2:45) features two course specialists in Zanza and PAINT THE DREAM who both have to carry top weight of 12stone. Zanza did incredibly well to win the Grade 2 Denman Chase last month, but he’s gone up a whopping 15lbs for that and we all know that weight stops trains. I felt he improved for the step up in trip that day as well, so dropping back to two and a half miles could work against him.

Paint The Dream, like Zanza, is three from three over fences at Newbury, including this race last year, but he’s only 4lbs higher than winning by 14 lengths over course and distance in November. He was dropped a couple of pounds for a slightly disappointing effort on soft ground at Kempton in January and the return to quicker conditions at his favourite track can see him get his head in front again. Gemirande and Sebastopol are the improvers but it’s Paint The Dream for me.

Kelso, Saturday

They’ve done a great job at Kelso with the valuable Morebattle Hurdle (1:50) and putting up the £100,000 bonus if the winner goes on to land any race at Cheltenham. Emmet Mullins and Paul Byrne managed to do it two years ago with The Shunter and they’re back again with the four-year-old MCTIGUE.

He won a Grade 2 in Auteuil last October, turning over a French hotpot, but that horse reversed the form in a Grade 1 the following month. Although Mctigue has disappointed on his last two starts, he could still be well-handicapped and you ignore these connections at your peril.

Colonel Mustard had a good level of form last season, finishing third behind State Man in the County Hurdle and prior to that he was second to Jonbon and ahead of Knappers Hill in the Kennel Gate at Ascot. I’ll be siding with the Irish horses over the English in this one.

Emmet also has the likely favourite in the Premier Novices’ Hurdle (2:25), but Feronily is making his debut over hurdles so it’s going to be a big ask. NEMEAN LION was a good third behind Tahmuras in the Tolworth and he’ll do for me.

I’ve tipped LE MILOS for the Grand National for the Skeltons and he takes his chance in the Premier Chase (3:35). He went up 6lbs for winning at Newbury and connections have protected his mark for the Grand National since then. He’ll enjoy a bit of juice in the ground, it’s perfect timing ahead of Aintree and I’d expect him to see off this lot.

Doncaster, Saturday

The big race at Doncaster is the Grimthorpe Chase (3:15) where only eight go to post. Does He Know ran pretty well in the Denman Chase after a break, but he may strip fitter in this. He does have a lot of weight to carry, though, and I would be with CASTLE ROBIN here. He won well at Sandown the last day and is only 4lbs higher here. Cooper’s Cross is another with a big chance, but he has to prove he stays this trip.

Early look at Cheltenham

The preview circuit is in full swing and the tips are flying round left, right and centre. We still don’t know where all the horses are running, but if he goes for the Brown Advisory, I think SIR GERHARD will run a massive race. I know he’s only had the one start over fences which isn’t ideal, but that’s just the way the season has gone. He’s a very classy horse and is two from two at the Festival.

Willie [Mullins] has a very strong hand in the Triumph and the money has come for BLOOD DESTINY over the past week or so. It will be interesting to see who Paul [Townend] chooses to ride.