Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Strong Leader can dig Deep in the Long Walk

William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty picks out his best bets on Saturday from Ascot and Haydock.

Ascot, Saturday

ISSAM is two from three over fences and looks to be progressing nicely, so could be the one in the two-mile-three-furlong handicap chase (1:50pm). His one defeat was when going down by a neck over two miles at Sandown, but both his wins have come at around this trip. Soft ground is no issue, as those were the conditions he encountered when he won on his reappearance at Wetherby last month, and he strikes me as a horse that could be on the up.

Crambo is going for a hat-trick of wins in Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (2:25pm), and while you have to respect him on that basis, it is hard to make a case for him on his form this season. I like Impose Toi, who we put up when he won at Newbury, but he was getting six pounds from STRONG LEADER that day and I think with the swing in the weights Olly Murphy’s runner has a good chance of reversing the form. It was a tactical race too, and I don’t think that suited Strong Leader. He was well beaten in this race last year and disappointed on his next start following a wind operation, but if you take those two runs out of the equation, then he has some excellent form over three miles. He is top-rated here, and very consistent, so he could be value against the top two in the market.

I thought DEEP CAVE was of interest in the Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3:00pm). He fell on two of his three starts over fences in France but on his last two starts he has landed a competitive handicap hurdle at Aintree and won over fences last time. He looked to have stepped up on what he achieved over hurdles when winning over fences at Bangor, where he beat The Doyen Chief with a long gap back to the third. That horse didn’t run badly at Cheltenham last weekend, so it was a good performance. Going up four pounds is not a massive penalty, and he sneaks in here off a low weight. Christian Williams does brilliantly in these staying handicaps too.

FIERCELY PROUD won the same two-mile handicap hurdle (3:35pm) last season after a good run to finish sixth in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and he lines up here after a similar effort when finishing fifth behind Alexei last month. He came home over 13 lengths behind Alexei, but is now a stone better off at the weights with that rival. The form of Fiercely Proud’s win in this race last year has worked out well, and while he comes here off a seven-pound higher mark, he is only a six-year-old and is a horse that was always well thought of. LIVE CONTI did nothing wrong last season, winning at Wetherby and then finishing second to Willie Mullins’ Murcia in Grade 1 company in Aintree. With the Skeltons targeting these big prizes, he could offer a bit of each-way value.

Haydock, Saturday

In the Tommy Whittle (2:05pm), I thought SALADINS SON should improve for his second to Top Of The Bill over the same course and distance last month. While Top Of The Bill got a nine-pound rise in the weights for that, Saladins Son remains on the same mark and you would expect him to improve for that reappearance run. He looked progressive last season, winning three of his four starts, and there could be more to come now.

The Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle (2:40pm) looks a tricky race. The form of JACKIE HOBBS’ win at Newbury last time is working out well, with the second and third going on to win since. She travelled so well in that race, and despite being a bit untidy at the last hurdle, she made a taking impression. I’d imagine she can improve for that experience. Her only defeat to date came in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree, where she didn’t run to form. That aside, she has some very strong form to her name and might be up to defying a three-pound penalty here.