Barry Geraghty
Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Jagwar can rule Supreme At Cheltenham
William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty looks over Saturday’s racing from Cheltenham and Navan, which sees some big stars set to reappear.
Cheltenham, Saturday
Day two of the November Meeting opens with the Grade 2 Triumph Trial (12:35pm) and it’s a competitive race with not much form to go on. Gavin Cromwell’s SECRET FORCE put in a good performance to win in Punchestown and Keith [Donoghue] is doing 11 stone here, which he wouldn’t usually be doing. In a market that’s based mainly on reputation, he could offer some value after the performance he put up on his first start over hurdles. The going could be pretty testing with all the rain around, but he won on heavy ground on the Flat at Listowel, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue.
JULY FLOWER could be the one to beat in the Arkle Trial (1:45pm), after she put in a smart performance on soft ground at Limerick on her reappearance. She has some very strong form in the book going back to when she beat a quality field, including Kala Conti and Jetara, over hurdles at Leopardstown last Christmas. Henry’s [de Bromhead] horses have a tendency to step forward a lot from hurdles to fences so I think there’s a lot to like about her.
The Paddy Power Handicap Chase (2:20pm) is a very open and competitive race as usual, but I’m a big fan of JAGWAR. I thought he put in an excellent performance to win the Plate at the Festival last season. He’s a big horse and he’s only six, so I would imagine he’s potentially improved a lot since the spring. Soft ground shouldn’t worry him, and he could have the most potential in this field. There are lots of horses to respect in here, but to me he could prove to be a cut above a handicapper.
Only two lengths separated SUPREMELY WEST and Long Draw when they ran at Cheltenham in October. That was his first run after a wind-op and his first since joining the Skeltons and I imagine there’s potential for him to step forward a lot from that in this three-mile (2:55pm) contest. He won on heavy ground at Haydock last season, so if the ground turns really testing it shouldn’t bother him. With his good Cheltenham form and versatility on the ground, I like his chances.
Navan, Saturday
We see the return of THE YELLOW CLAY in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle (2:10pm). He finished only a half-length behind the current favourite for the Champion Hurdle at the Festival last season, with Final Demand behind him in third. Gordon [Elliott] will have him ready first time, he’ll love conditions and the track and trip suit him, so he should be hard to beat.
Mozzies Sister could be a bit of value to chase the favourite home. While she has a good bit to find on ratings, she won very well last time out at Wexford and did have some strong form last season when third to Final Demand at the Dublin Racing Festival. The fact Declan Queally is in form and she gets plenty of weight from her rivals here are other positives.
The ground is currently soft at Navan and could turn heavy with more rain, which would be a slight concern for some big guns returning in the Grade 2 Fortria Chase (2:45pm). Marine Nationale’s form improved as the season went on last campaign and his best form is on a better surface, so he might be vulnerable on testing ground first time out. Captain Guinness has won this race in the past, but he pulled up in it last year. Solness is another that has questions to answer on this ground. Found A Fifty has had a run but it was a slightly laboured display at Down Royal. That leads me to DINOBLUE, who might just be the most capable in these conditions. She goes well fresh, finishing second behind Energumene first time out last season and was a winner at Naas on reappearance the season before. She’s a very good mare and might be the one to be with in what looks a tricky race.
It will be interesting to see KOPEK DES BORDES over fences for the first time in the Beginners Chase (3:20pm). He did disappoint on his last start at Punchestown, but the performances he put in before that at Leopardstown and Cheltenham make him another major player for Willie Mullins this season.
