Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Nube Negra to bounce back on better ground

William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty looks over the best of Wednesday’s racing, including the Welsh Grand National from Chepstow and Graded action from Kempton and Leopardstown.

Chepstow, Wednesday

BURDETT ROAD’s (2:10pm) form was franked when the runner-up behind him last time, An Bradan Feasa, came out and won a decent race at Cheltenham earlier this month. Last time, Harry Cobden dropped him in and while he didn’t jump amazingly at times, he still won impressively despite everything seeming to go wrong for him. I think he will have learned from that; he’ll have learned to settle and jump a bit better. For me, he’s the best juvenile we’ve seen to date.

The going looks set to be much better than is usually the case at Chepstow for the Welsh National (2:50pm). Unless they get a lot of rain before Wednesday, it looks like being good-to-soft ground and that could make it less of a dour test than usual, which slightly puts me off my initial fancy Iwilldoit. Nassalam won the trial for this race well, but as a six-year-old this might be a quick enough turn around after only a 16-day break. The Uttoxeter form from last March where Autonomous Cloud narrowly beat Iron Bridge, with Super Survivor back in third, might be the key to this race. Of the three, IRON BRIDGE looks to offer the most value. He was a pulled-up on his return at Newbury where his jumping let him down, but he may have needed that run. He has some good form prior to that and Jonjo [O’Neill] is always worth following in a staying handicap.

Kempton, Wednesday

I thought NICKLE BACK (1:55pm) dropping back in trip was interesting. He looked to race with too much enthusiasm when second to Hermes Allen at Newbury and for me didn’t see out the 2m4f trip. He’s a strong traveller who jumps well and I think he should be suited by this course and distance. Rather than James Best having to restrain him, he can let him roll around Kempton, and if he gets into a good rhythm out in front, he could be hard to peg back.

One I really fancy on the better ground is NUBE NEGRA (2:30pm). He beat Altior in this race three years ago when it wasn’t a handicap. His last four runs have all been on soft or heavy ground, which doesn’t suit him and prior to that he was a winner on good ground at Cheltenham. I just think now he’s back on a sounder surface we could see him return to something like his best. It’s a competitive race though with lots of chances, including Editeur Du Gite, who loves it around here.

Leopardstown, Wednesday

Captain Guinness was a good winner at Navan last time but the one I like here is DINO BLUE (1:10pm). She finished off last season really strongly, winning at both the Fairyhouse and Punchestown Festivals, after being maybe a touch unlucky in the Grand Annual. She also won on her return at Naas last month and is a mare that’s definitely on the up.

The Grade 1 novices’ hurdle (1:45pm) looks a competitive event. Down Memory Lane was very impressive in his point-to-point and his bumper and also won his maiden hurdle cosily. He didn’t have to beat much but he didn’t have to come out of third gear to do so. DADDY LONG LEGS was second on the Flat in France before winning really well by 13 lengths on his debut for Willie Mullins at Thurles. He beat a couple of smart rivals that day, so that looks the best bit of form on offer and there’s possibly more value in his price. Absurde won the Ebor last season and was last seen finishing a close enough seventh in the Melbourne Cup. He didn’t always jump with fluency when finishing down the field on his last start over hurdles at Galway though and that might be why he’s such a big price here. Predators Gold also runs for the Mullins team, and he looks a huge price considering he has won a bumper at the Punchestown Festival and a maiden hurdle so far. He’s done everything required of him, and unless there’s something we don’t know about, he looks way overpriced on form.