Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Conflated can trump Colombe at Down Royal

William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty gives his thoughts and best bets for this weekend’s action from Down Royal, Wincanton and Aintree.

Last weekend

Gentlemansgame wore down Bravemansgame in a thrilling finish to the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. I think the benefit of him having had a run previously made all the difference.

Conditions were against Bravemansgame and I don’t think he did anything wrong. You’d expect plenty of improvement from him on the back of that.

Saturday, Down Royal

The Champion Chase (2.20pm) looks a cracking race and I have a lot of respect for all four horses. Gerri Colombe has an impressive CV having only been beaten once, when narrowly losing out to The Real Whacker in Cheltenham. I think he learned a lot from that race, and his jumping was a lot slicker when he won at Aintree last time. He’s definitely a horse that’s on the up but he is a very short price considering what he’s taking on.

Envoi Allen won this race last year and went on to win the Ryanair. He’s perhaps still not the horse of old and this looks a stronger race than 12 months ago.

Minella Indo put in a smart performance at Punchestown last time but he’s a 10-year-old now and might be vulnerable.

The horse I’d be drawn to is CONFLATED, as his third in the Gold Cup is better form than anything Gerri Colombe has shown yet. He was only six lengths behind Galopin Des Champs when he weakened up the run-in at Cheltenham. He’s a horse that has probably shaped as though he would be better suited to a Ryanair, so an easy three miles here should be to his liking. He was beaten in this race by Envoi Allen last year, but then he went and put in a brilliant performance to win at Leopardstown. He’s had a run coming into this race this year, when well beaten behind Minella Indo at Punchestown, and I would expect a big improvement with that behind him.

Down Royal has a downhill run from three out and I just think that’s going to play to Conflated‘s strengths as he might catch Gerri Colombe out for pace.

The Grade 2 chase (2.55pm) is a tricky race. Ash Tree Meadow won the Galway Plate and is a smart horse, but his form is generally on a sounder surface, so I’d be a bit fearful for him on soft ground.

FERONILY won a Grade 1 in Punchestown on his second start over fences. He looked like a horse that was going to improve an awful lot for the run when he finished second at Galway last month. His better form is over further than this two-and-a-half miles, but I’m willing to take a chance that the conditions will suit him better than his two rivals.

The one I like in the Listed handicap hurdle (1.45pm) is FOXY GIRL for Henry de Bromhead. She ran very keen when finishing eighth in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the Festival and she wears a hood for her reappearance here. I’d say the hood will be a big help to her and she should be fine in conditions, so she’s the one I’d side with.

Saturday, Wincanton

KNAPPERS HILL is going to be hard to beat in the Grade 2 novices’ chase (1.50pm). He just got touched off by Unexpected Party at Chepstow on his reappearance, but that rival had a lot of experience over fences and I think he put that to good use. Knappers Hill did jump well there and should come on for the run. I don’t feel any of this opposition are as strong as Unexpected Party, so Knappers Hill should take plenty of beating.

Frodon won last year’s Badger Beer Chase (2.25pm) off the same mark of 158. That came on his ideal good-to-firm ground though and softer conditions might be against him here.

It looks a very open race, and I don’t think any of them in here are that reliable. The one I do like is THE BIG BREAKAWAY, who had some good early season form last time around when finishing second on reappearance and then also second in the Welsh National. He’s a horse that has had a few issues, but he’s still only an eight-year-old and his early season form on soft ground makes him the pick.

Paul Nicholls’ RUBAUD (3.00pm) looked very progressive last season, winning at Kempton and, after avoiding Cheltenham, he also won the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr when beating a good yardstick in Colonel Mustard. He returned this season with a good win at Kempton and looks to me to be a smart prospect.

Hansard was 20 lengths behind Rubaud in Kempton last season, so looks to have a bit to find.

Saturday, Aintree

REMASTERED won this Pertemps Qualifier (1.35pm) last year and was third in it two season ago, both when making his seasonal debut. He’s eight pounds higher than last year but that was a good performance and it was used as a stepping stone towards his run in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. This is his first run after a wind operation and given he goes so well when fresh, he should run well again.

The Grand Sefton (2.45pm) looks to be a tricky enough race. FANTASTIC LADY had Gesskille behind her when she was second in the Topham on soft ground, which is over the same trip as this race. While conditions should make this a stamina test, I just wonder whether this trip is on the sharp side for Gesskille. While she has a lot of weight to carry, Fantastic Lady would be the one for me.

Cooper’s Cross was going well when falling four out in the Topham and he could offer a bit of value at the prices.

WEST BALBOA (3.20pm) is the one I like in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle. She won the Lanzarote on very soft ground and was a good winner at Aintree in the spring. She’s only had five starts over hurdles so there should be plenty more still to come.

Brewin’upastorm has been a great servant in these sorts of races and won this race two years ago. I do think he’s a better horse on better ground though.