Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Value in Vega against Marine Nationale

William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty looks ahead to a jam-packed weekend of racing action from Sandown and Leopardstown.

Sandown, Saturday

The Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (2:35pm) looks a competitive five-runner field. Hermes Allen made an impressive reappearance at Newbury and there was no disgrace finishing 11 lengths behind Il Est Francais at Kempton on Boxing Day, but he also finished only 3½ lengths in front of Kilbeg King who is only rated 135, so that form doesn’t necessarily excite me. He is a good horse, but his form does suggest there is a ceiling and makes him very much opposable here. Le Patron looks to be the current market’s favoured competitor from the Gary Moore stable. He’s a horse on the up, but I am not fully convinced by the Henry VIII form. I think that the unlucky DJELO, who unfortunately was turned over at Lingfield, has progressed well and his form in tricky handicaps is appealing. I would be inclined to take on the favourite with Venetia Williams’ runner.

The Heroes Handicap Hurdle (3:10pm) is the other big race at Sandown and looks very competitive. Ed Keeper was unlucky last time out at Cheltenham after a mistake at the last, but my selection is SAINT DAVY for the Jonjo O’Neill yard. He is a lightly raced gelding, who has only made four racecourse appearances. His win last time out at Ludlow really showed his stamina over this trip of 3 miles and there should be improvement to come.

Leopardstown, Saturday

The first Novice Hurdle (1:20pm) A Grade 1 over 2m6½f. The current market leader is PREDATORS GOLD, who was 6½ lengths behind Caldwell Potter in the Champions Novice Hurdle in Leopardstown over Christmas. The pair finished 38 lengths clear of third that day, which is very strong form and he looks the worthy favourite for Saturday. There’s another Gigginstown owned runner in the card, Stellar Story, who ran a good race behind Loughglynn at Limerick, the last day. I think Loughglynn is open to improvement and has potential to build on that form, so he could be the favourite’s biggest danger in the field.

Moving on to the Spring Juvenile (1:50pm). Storm Heart was impressive when winning at Punchestown in December but didn’t have to beat much. KARGESE is my fancy in this, she ran well in Grade 2 company at Christmas, when beaten less than a length by Kala Conti which is strong form, and I can see her coming on from it and getting her head in front this time and reversing the form. Bunting and Majborough are two others worth noting.

Up next is the Irish Arkle Novice Chase (2:25pm) where we see Marine Nationale for the first time in 2024. Barry Connell’s gelding has been brilliant in 2023, obviously beating Facile Vega by 3¼ lengths in the Supreme, and since then won on chasing debut at Leopardstown over 2m1f. Despite his class and potential, I think that he is far too short in the market here, considering he’s only won one over fences. I don’t think there is much between himself and FACILE VEGA, who might well have got closer to him in the Supreme if Paul Townend had ridden a slightly more patient race. I think Facile Vega looks to offer good value against the favourite.

The Irish Gold Cup Chase (3:35pm) sees GALOPIN DES CHAMPS renew his rivalry with Fastorslow. Although Fastorslow is two from two against Galopin at Punchestown, Willie Mullins’ runner really showed his true colours last time at Leopardstown when pulling clear and winning the Savills Chase by 23 lengths from Gerri Colombe. I will imagine Conflated will make the pace and pull them along with Galopin happily in second and I don’t see any reason why he will be beaten. Also, a key point is that Punchestown arguably suits Fastorslow better as he travels better going right-handed.

The final race on Saturday’s card is the bumper(4:00pm) where A DREAM TO SHARE returns. He missed some time earlier in the season and wouldn’t have the hurdling experience, so he stays in bumpers for the time being. He will be very hard to beat, Redemption Day could be the main competitor based on form, with the second at Punchestown, beaten only 1¾ lengths by Facile Vega back in 2022. His reappearance run was a decent run too after a 611-day break coming second behind Gordon Elliott’s Jalon D’Oudairies. These two set the standard with their form and if at their best it will be tough for anything to jump out of the field.