Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Lossiemouth to make a Statement

William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty looks ahead to a big weekend of racing from Haydock, Ascot and Punchestown, including three Grade 1s to savour.

Haydock, Saturday

Haydock’s card opens with a Grade 2 novice hurdle (12:08pm). I really liked how COUNTRY MILE won at Ayr last time, where he travelled really strongly. They didn’t go very quick, and it turned into a little bit of a sprint in the straight. I loved the way he jumped and travelled and to me he looked like a horse that was open to a lot of improvement. It’s difficult to weigh up the opposition. Lily Du Berlais has won her last two but is a bit late to the party here as an eight-year-old. Roadlesstravelled was a good winner at Wetherby, but I was taken with Country Mile, and he’ll do for me.

The 2m2f handicap hurdle (1:15pm) is a competitive race, with plenty you can make cases for, but the one I like is STEEL ALLY. He was a good second to Lump Sum on his reappearance at Ffos Las, and he has some strong form from last season. He finished a length and a half behind Helnwein at Sandown in April and was just behind last weekend’s Greatwood Hurdle runner-up Be Aware there too. Before that he was second to Doyen Quest, who won at Cheltenham last weekend, so that form is working out as well. Sam Thomas is mastering the art of training nice horses, and this looks to be another one that is on an upward curve.

To watch Harry Skelton ride DOYEN QUEST with the confidence that he did last weekend at Cheltenham suggested he knew he had a stone in hand. It was the performance of a horse that had a stone in hand too – coming from so far back in the field after travelling so well. I’m not surprised they are coming back quickly for a crack at this Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2:30pm), and while it is a quick turnaround after last weekend, I’d say he is a horse with a big future and the one to beat.

I think the market looks wrong in the Betfair Chase (3:05pm). I do respect Grey Dawning, who was a very smart novice last season, but he has been beaten on both of his seasonal reappearances and he isn’t proven at this level in open company yet. Ahoy Senor was an eye-catcher on his reappearance, but he hasn’t won a race for nearly two years now. Last year’s renewal where Royale Pagaille beat Bravemansgame didn’t look a strong event, and they might struggle this year. For me, last year’s King George winner HEWICK brings some of the best form. He was a very close second to Envoi Allen in the Champion Chase at Down Royal last time, where he had a high-class rival in Gerri Colombe 13 lengths behind him. If Gerri Colombe was lining up here, he could easily be favourite, so there definitely looks to be some value in Hewick. He’s probably best on a better surface, although he does handle soft ground, so hopefully they don’t get too much rain at Haydock.

Ascot, Saturday

PIC D’ORHY won the 1965 Chase (1:30pm) by 16 lengths last year and is very hard to oppose again. He loves it around Ascot, and this is his ideal trip, so as the market suggests he should take a good bit of beating against rivals that have something to find.

In the Ascot Hurdle (2:45pm), I’ll side with a stablemate of Pic d’Orhy’s in BLUEKING D’OROUX. He won this race last year when a four-year-old, and it was impressive that he got the better of a good rival in Strong Leader, who signed off last season with a win in the Liverpool Hurdle. While his form tailed off in the second half of last season, another year on he should be stronger now and he looks a horse that can only keep improving.

Punchestown, Saturday

The Morgiana Hurdle (2:10pm) takes centre stage at Punchestown on Saturday. For me, LOSSIEMOUTH is the horse that could be the biggest threat to Constitution Hill this season. If you look at the Champion Hurdle market, she is ahead of State Man, so that would suggest she is potentially the better horse. She was so impressive last season, especially when winning at Cheltenham and Punchestown and I just think she’s got massive potential. Jockey bookings suggest I’m wrong, and I’m sure it would have been very difficult for Paul Townend to get off State Man having been unbeaten on him last season, but I’m a big Lossiemouth fan.

Punchestown, Sunday

Sunday’s John Durkan (2:25pm) has all the makings of a brilliant renewal. FACT TO FILE’s win at the Dublin Racing Festival last season is an outstanding piece of form. That was over 2m5f and at the 2m1f point he matched the time El Fabiolo clocked (4m 17s) when he won the 2m1f Dublin Chase on the same day. To have Gaelic Warrior already well beaten when he fell and hit the line on the bridle was some performance. Fact To File was in my horses to follow this season, and I think everything should be right for him here – the trip will be perfect, and he has the speed to put it up to Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow.

It goes without saying Galopin Des Champs is a brilliant horse, and Fastorslow loves Punchestown, but for both stamina is their strong suit, and I think that if Fact To File can run to the level of his Leopardstown win, he might just have too much for them.