Barry Geraghty: Saint Calvados has chance to shine

William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty look back on the return to form of Shishkin at Ascot, before running his eye over this Saturday’s racing from Kempton, Newcastle and Fairyhouse.

Shishkin

It was a brilliant performance from Shishkin in Ascot last Saturday. He had a tongue tie on and I know Nicky [Henderson] had done a small bit of work on his wind, but the step up in trip was probably the main factor. He travelled brilliantly, he jumped better than in the Tingle Creek and he raced to a similar level to when he won the Clarence House last season.

It was what we were all hoping to see and you’d have to feel he’s now a worthy favourite for the Ryanair. It would be a big call to have him start the season as a two-mile chaser, to win over two-mile-five and then to step him up again. The Gold Cup isn’t just three miles, it’s three-and-a-quarter around one of the stiffest tracks in the country. It’s a big test of stamina and when you haven’t proven yourself beyond two-mile-five, it would be brave. The Gold Cup hasn’t been ruled out yet, but it’s looking likely it’s going to be the Ryanair, and I think it’s the right call.

Kempton on Saturday

We’re getting close to Cheltenham now and it’s worth keeping in mind that it’s possibly a disadvantage for horses running now, if they are going to the Festival, as it doesn’t leave them that long to recover.

There’s a good, competitive card in Kempton, where the Coral Trophy (3:00) is the feature.

Paul Nicholls has a great record in three-mile chases at Kempton and I think conditions are going to be ideal for his two at the top of the weights.

Frodon for me is a horse that is really well suited to flat tracks and good ground. He had that at the start of the season in the Badger Beers at Wincanton, and he won well. With the way the weather has been he’s going to get similar conditions on Saturday. He’s only three pounds higher than when he won at Wincanton and he was impressive that day.

I think he’ll be ridden prominently, but the faster they go the more it’s likely to suit SAINT CALVADOS. He has been keen with David Maxwell riding, and I see Harry Cobden is riding on Saturday. No disrespect to David, but Harry is a world-class rider and Saint Calvados might just settle a little bit better for him. The faster they go, the easier it will be for Harry Cobden to settle him too.

Annsam is another with a chance, but his win came on soft ground last time.

Joseph O’Brien brings over Nusret for the Adonis Hurdle (1:50), which gives us another line on the Irish form. He was third in Fairyhouse last time when well beaten by Blood Destiny and then behind Lossiemouth before that.

Scriptwriter and PERSEUS WAY are closely matched on their Cheltenham run from November. I just wonder if Kempton might be a little on the sharp side for Scriptwriter. He probably sets the standard, but I think Perseus Way is a horse that could be better suited to these conditions.

In the Pendil (2:25), BOOTHILL looks the one to beat. He was second to Jonbon in December and most recently finished second to Tommy’s Oscar in Doncaster. I think people might just overlook that level of form because Tommy’s Oscar is a very good horse on those flat tracks. I wouldn’t see the step up in trip being a problem, in fact it’s probably ideal for him on this track. He’s a worthy favourite and should be hard to beat.

It’s probably not a vintage renewal of the Dovecote (3:40), with lots of horses stepping up from lesser company. I suppose HANSARD is one that has been operating at a slightly lower level to this, but he has been very impressive in both starts over hurdles.

Rubaud was a good winner at Taunton on good ground, so this flat track should suit. He was exposed off a handicap mark of 130 in the Betfair Hurdle, though, so I’d rather side with Gary Moore’s horse.

Fairyhouse on Saturday

A lot of these in the Bobbyjo (3:55) are potentially prepping for the Grand National. Longhouse Poet, who won last season’s Thyestes, is potentially a smart one for the Grand National.

CAREFULLY SELECTED would be the strong choice in this. He was a good winner of the Thyestes in Gowran last time. He beat Dunboyne, who to me is a horse to keep in mind for the Kim Muir, so that was a good run. He’d been off the track for the best part of two years before returning in Leopardstown at Christmas, and the last day was his second run back. He was a smart horse when you look back through his form – he was second in the Cheltenham Bumper to Relegate five years ago – and he looks the one be on here.

Pencilfulloflead was third in the Thyestes, so would have a bit to make up with Carefully Selected.

Newcastle on Saturday

It’s probably not a vintage renewal of the Eider (3:25) and looks to lack real depth. Kitty’s Light is a warm order, but I’m still wondering why he’s as short as he is. He was beaten 20 lengths on soft ground last time and hasn’t shown his best form for a while.

Galloping Bear fell in the Welsh National when he looked beaten.

There are a few in here off low weights that could be capable of a good show. Nicky Richard’s Houston Texas and Sam England’s No Cruise Yet are two who could still be on the improve, but it’s hard to be confident in an open contest.