Barry Geraghty’s William Hill blog: Neighbour can Dance to victory at Leopardstown

William Hill ambassador Barry Geraghty looks over the first day of the Dublin Racing Festival from Leopardstown as well as some strong supporting action from Sandown and Musselburgh.

Leopardstown, Saturday

FINAL DEMAND (1:15pm) was on my radar before his point-to-points and he lived up to expectations there. He then bolted up when winning his maiden hurdle at Limerick last time. The runner-up from Limerick has since gone on to win at Ayr, earning a mark of 122 in the process, which makes Final Demand’s effort look all the better considering he easily pulled clear to win by 15 lengths. It looks a competitive race, but Final Demand is the one that stands out.

In the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle (1:50pm), I like HELLO NEIGHBOUR. He won twice on the Flat and then landed a Grade 2 on his first start over hurdles at Leopardstown, when just lasting home from Lady Vega Allen. He made a mistake at the second last and I felt that Keith Donoghue rushed him back to challenge turning in, and that may have detracted from his finish. If he had left him a bit longer to recover after the error, I think he would have finished stronger. He’s a horse that should improve a lot for that experience and could take another step up here.

Off his current handicap mark, the Listed handicap hurdle (2:25pm) looks a penalty kick for MEETINGOFTHEWATERS. He sneaks in at the bottom of the weights off a mark of 112 and he’s rated 148 over fences. I know chase form doesn’t always transfer to hurdles, but he’s a horse that doesn’t lack pace and is effectively 36 pounds well in. I’d be shocked if he can’t win.

The Irish Arkle (2:55pm) comes next. MAJBOROUGH put in a big performance when winning in Fairyhouse on chasing debut. His jumping was brilliant that day and I think he could be the one to give Sir Gino most to think about at Cheltenham. Ile Atlantique was impressive at Naas last time but that came on very soft ground, which he looked to relish, and I don’t think these conditions will be as bad here.

I was trying to make a case for Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup (3:30pm) because he ran keen when taking Galopin Des Champs on last time and I’m not fully convinced we saw him at his best. When I look back at the replay though, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS won by over seven lengths, but for me it’s not what he did before the line, it’s what he did after the line. He went about two-and-a-half to three furlongs before Paul Townend could pull him up, and that was after going three miles, he was that strong at the finish. That’s what sets him apart. He is the reigning champion and it will take a big performance to dethrone him.

In the Grade 2 bumper (4:35pm), HE CAN’T DANCE caught my eye when putting in a good performance to win at Navan last time. Interestingly the runner up from that race, Coyote Spirit, has since been bought by Bective Stud, and I think that says a lot for He Can’t Dance. He beat Meetmebythesea in his point-to-point and that horse is three out of three for Ben Pauling, so He Can’t Dance looks to have plenty going for him.

Sandown, Saturday

There are only four in the Scilly Isles (2:35pm) but it looks a tight little race. JANGO BAIE is the right favourite for me. He beat both Springwell Bay and Caldwell Potter on chase debut at Cheltenham and both of those horses have franked the form since. That was a very good performance for his first run over fences and he can only improve from it. Jango Baie was a good second on soft ground at Aintree last season, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue for him, especially as the chase course at Sandown won’t be as testing as the hurdles course. I’m not sure Kalif Du Berlais has had to beat much in his two chase starts so far, so Handstands, who beat Jango Baie over hurdles last season when in receipt of five pounds, could be the main danger. He looked to have progressed well when winning last time but this requires another step up from him.

HENRI THE SECOND could be the one in the Heros Handicap Hurdle (3:07pm) having gone up eight pounds for a very good performance last time out over course and distance on very soft ground. He was a comfortable winner by 18 lengths and he seemed to relish the conditions. It is going to be hard work at Sandown, especially on the hurdles course, and I think a reproduction of his run last time would make him hard to beat.

Musselburgh, Saturday

The Kalooki Kid is favourite for the Scottish Champion Chase (2:50pm) at Musselburgh and he looks a progressive horse, but I think there could be value in SAINT SEGAL. He bounced back to form with a big performance at Newbury last time. He’s back up to a mark of 137 which is a pound above when he looked set to win at Ascot before falling at the final fence last season. A good rival in Boothill looked beaten in second that day which shows he’s now back to a very competitive mark.