Cheltenham Festival: The Traders’ View

With a month or so to go till the Cheltenham Festival, the ante-post markets are really beginning to take shape with racing fans across the country hoping to seek out value ahead of those famous four days in March.

It’s a very busy time for the trading team too, and we asked William Hill’s Director of Racing, Mark Howarth how things are looking ahead of the big meeting.

In terms of turnover, how was the build-up to this year’s Cheltenham compared to previous festivals?

We decided to go ‘non-runner money back’ on all 28 races from the 28th January and this generous offer to our customers has certainly had the desired effect increasing turnover while it has also alleviated fears of injury or changes of plan from connections.

Which horse/s is/are the worst result?

Bob Olinger was a well backed winner at the meeting last year and at present is our worst result this time around. Connections have seemingly been set on targeting him at the intermediate two-and-a-half-mile trip from a long way out and punters have taken the hint. Sir Gerhard would be another repeat festival winner who would be a poor result for us if he is aimed at the Supreme.

Which race do you usually take the most money on?

In the past when a big field was the norm we have had very generous place terms in the Supreme in order to attract custom on the opening race, but aside from that the meeting tends to build towards the Gold Cup. Friday is the highest turnover day especially if results have been favourable to punters earlier in the week.

At what price did you first lay Constitution Hill at in the Supreme and he is the worst result in the book?

We laid 40/1 in the autumn in the lead up to his impressive rules debut at Sandown. He is not our worst result as we have been suitably impressed with his performances to keep just on the right side of him. As previously mentioned Sir Gerhard is a poor result for us in the Supreme. It promises to be an exciting race whoever you fancy with the likes of Jonbon and Mighty Potter thrown in for good measure.

Do you envisage Irish domination again or are expecting a tighter battle this time around?

We are as short as 1/10 for Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup again and have a market on the number of Irish winners with 21 or more quoted at 13/8, so it is fair to say we are very much expecting more of the same.

Has there been an overall fall in ante-post betting this year?

It is a challenge to keep turnover robust when it is such a competitive marketplace on the day of the race with firms happy to give extra places and other offers, but Cheltenham in particular keeps us busy. As soon as a horse wins the Champion Bumper there are punters keen to reinvest winning on the following year’s Supreme, and for many punters nothing beats the thrill of backing a horse at fancy prices and watching it shorten as the big day approaches.

Any horse been backed like defeat is out the question?

Honeysuckle has become a very popular horse with her unbeaten run and relationship with Rachael Blackmore. While there are potentially many interesting head-to-head contests at the Festival, the Champion Hurdle does look the one race where it is hard to envisage defeat for the hot favourite and with the risk of injury etc taken away by the non-runner money back concession there are plenty of punters willing to take odds of 1/2.

Biggest ante-post mover so far? Any notable handicap plunges?

Conflated was 50/1 before bursting onto the Gold scene after winning the Irish equivalent at Leopardstown and is now a 12/1 chance. Gaelic Warrior has been very well backed from an opening 20/1 into 9/2 for the Boodles – punters took the hint after Willie Mullins entered him in the UK recently to see what mark he would be given by the handicapper, and I doubt he was unhappy to see him allotted 129.

What are the top four horses included in most multiples so far?

Shiskin, Honeysuckle, Allaho and Bob Olinger.

The Triumph is shaping up to be a fascinating clash – where is the money going?

Fil Dor was the first cab off the rank after his impressive Down Royal win, but Vauban is currently our worst result. He was just outjumped by Pied Piper when they made their very promising hurdling debuts but improved on that to win at the Dublin Racing Festival and looks to have solid claims of following up at Cheltenham.

Finally, give us a tip for Cheltenham!

L’Homme Presse (Turners): Has done nothing wrong this season and is improving all the time – I loved the way he hit the line over course and distance early last month and is a massive danger to Bob Olinger. 

Il Etait Temps (Triumph): Acquitted himself really well on hurdles debut behind Vauban at the Dublin Racing Festival and there is every reason to believe he can close the gap or even reverse the form. He was help up off a slow pace and did well to get involved despite looking green at times and hit the line strongly. He looks overpriced.

Favourites to lay

Concertista (Mares Novice Chase): I don’t think she will be as good over fences as she was over hurdles. I’m not a fan of her form so far and I think her low jumping could catch her out around this venue.

Blue Lord (Arkle): A very fortunate winner at the Dublin Racing Festival he’s proven again that he’s not quite top class. A decent horse, but nothing special, and in a market where he feels near-favourite by default rather than substance to his form he has to be taken on.

Billaway (Foxhunters): He tries to make it third time lucky in the Hunter Chase having finished second twice in the race. I’m not convinced he truly stays this trip and he’s now 10. Surely his best chance at winning this has gone.

Market movers

Mrs Milner (Mares Hurdle): Not a lot went right for her in the Pertemps last year but she still came away from the field to win by five lengths – she goes on any ground, has won over any trip and is currently 12/1-10/1 for this race. I can see her going off a 5/1 shot on the day.

Winter Fog (Coral Cup/Pertemps): A new recruit to the shrewd Emmet Mullins yard who was punted of the boards on stable debut at Leopardstown. He ran a blinder to finish second having shaped like a well-handicapped horse and in doing so qualified for the Pertemps should they wish to go down that route. He’s double figures for both races at present, but it’s not hard envisage him being backed into favourite for whichever race it’s get in to.