Cheltenham Novices’ Chases Favourites Discussed

The Arkle Challenge Trophy

Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon (currently 7/4) and Willie Mullins’ El Fabiolo (currently 13/8f) have been neck-and-neck in the betting market for the Arkle since the first prices were released and may continue to swap between favourite and second favourite right up until the off.

The likelihood of either horse winning the race has been widely debated and each horse comes to Cheltenham with a similar CV. Jonbon has been very consistent since making his debut under Rules in 2021, winning all but one of his nine starts decisively. He was a high-class hurdler, winning the Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle and the Supreme Trial ahead of last year’s Cheltenham Festival, at which he finished second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind Constitution Hill, but has been even more impressive over fences.

Jonbon’s last run over hurdles was at the Aintree Festival where he beat his now Arkle-favourite rival El Fabiolo by just a neck. Since debuting in Chases, he has won by a combined 20½ lengths from three starts. His jumping is spectacular – careful, fast and bold – which really gives him an edge. Prone to getting sweaty and tense prior to his races last season, Jonbon has reappeared this season more level-headed and mature, which will have benefitted his race-performance no end. He is proven on good-to-soft and soft going, so should find the track at Cheltenham to his liking and should have no reason not impress once again under Aidan Coleman.

By contrast, the Irish raider El Fabiolo, who started his racing career on the Flat in France, has won four of his five starts since landing on Irish soil in 2021. Over two miles, he has won in both heavy and good-to-yielding conditions, so certainly won’t find the ground a disadvantage. His two runs over fences have seen him win by a combined 29 lengths, which certainly is formidable for Jonbon and shows that he has some serious pace, however it must be noted that his jumping is not flawless.

Cheltenham’s Old Course favours prominent front-runners, a description which befits both the favourite and the second favourite. These two have come very close before over hurdles, where the quality of jumping is less important. Going head-to-head over fences has the potential to show some chinks in El Fabiolo’s armour if he jumps carelessly, whereas Jonbon’s engine is likely to be tested going up the infamous Cheltenham Hill.

Bet on the Arkle here

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

At 7/4, Gordon Elliott’s Gerri Colombe is the hot favourite for the Brown Advisory, an extended-three-mile chase around the Old Course. Second favourite, The Real Whacker, barely touches him at  5/1. Although not top-rated here, the favourite – a seven-year-old who is only topped in the ratings by eight-year-old Sir Gerhard and nine-year-old Thyme Hill – has remained unbeaten through all of his seven career starts.

Having run in three chases to date – winning by a combined 8¾ lengths – he steps up to three miles for the first time here which, judging by his winning distances not being overly extensive, may prove to be hugely beneficial. Though plucky over two-and-a-half-miles, Gerri Colombe’s staying power may be more dominant than his speed. However, as he is reasonably unexposed over this trip, there must be an element of uncertainty regarding how well he will adapt to a longer, slower race over fences rather than hurdles. If he excels over three miles, though, he will demonstrate significant versatility having then won over every available distance between two and three miles.

Take note that this will be Gerri Colombe’s first start at Cheltenham, which may throw some questions and leave him vulnerable to more seasoned course and distance horses, such as Thyme Hill – who has never finished behind fourth in his five runs around Prestbury Park and could be due a win based on this season’s form. Likewise, Sir Gerhard – twice a winner at Cheltenham – is likely to be highly competitive here too, alongside The Real Whacker, whose two most recent starts were wins around both the Old and New courses at the track.

Bet on the Brown Advisory here

Turners Novices’ Chase

Mighty Potter, another of Gordon Elliott’s, is short-priced favourite for the Turners Chase at just 11/10. This son of Martaline has excellent chase form from this season, having started off with a win at Down Royal in an ordinary event and following on with two Grade 1 Chase wins at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown. A good jumper and a strong traveller, he has enough in his favour to tally up another win in this contest but – a debutant on the New Course – must prove that his stamina is up to the standard required to finish well around this testing track.

The gelding has raced at the Cheltenham Festival before, in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, in which he was pulled-up after making a mistake jumping. This will be an altogether different test and expectation for Mighty Potter to storm home for a decisive win is high. Rated 162, he outclasses his rivals by some way and – as this race is not handicapped – should be set up for a very comfortable win. He is a horse who continues to improve and rise to the challenge of whatever has been asked of him so far. Very strong claims.

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