Horse Racing Tips
Derby and Oaks favourites discussed
The second set of English Classic races each Flat season and the likely candidates for the Group 1 Epsom Oaks and Derby are discussed and deliberated at length time and time again.
The winners of these races will often go on to shape the Thoroughbred breed in their stud careers as stallions or broodmares, which adds more gravitas to the results.
The Oaks
The most popular contender for the Oaks is currently Aidan O’Brien’s Savethelastdance, who won the Cheshire Oaks in never-before-seen style by a mammoth 22 lengths. Being by Galileo, a Derby winner, and out of an American Oaks winning mare, she is bred to win this race and has shown significant talent already, winning both of her three-year-old starts. Both of these wins came on heavy and soft ground, however, and with firmer going expected at Epsom, she will have to prove her ability in different conditions, which may favour other runners.
Second favourite is John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister, who was the unexpected victor of the Musidora Stakes by four lengths having finished last in her seasonal reappearance at Newbury in April. Her pedigree suggests that she should be able to stay the mile and half of the oaks, as she is a full sister to a two-time three-year-old winner over a mile and six furlongs. With the Musidora win on good ground, Soul Sister is arguably better qualified in better conditions than Savethelastdance, and has a similar winning CV, but will be up against more talented rivals than she is used to here. A wide draw of 10 may prove to be disadvantageous.
Soul Sister’s stablemate, Running Lion, is now sitting third in the Oaks’ betting markets. This filly, by the late Roaring Lion whose single crop of stock are proving to be a talented bunch, has more racecourse exposure than the first and second favourite and a greater tally of wins too. Two out of three wins as a two-year-old by a combined 9¾ lengths set her up brilliantly for a further couple of successes by a total of five and half lengths in April and May this year in her three-year-old campaign. Given her experiential advantage, she could have the upper hand, although three of her five career starts have been on the All-Weather rather than the Turf. The only slight uncertainty with Running Lion, therefore, is what her favoured conditions could be. A nice inside draw in Stall Two should help her achieve her best possible result.
The Derby
Despite an anti-climactic run in the 2000 Guineas earlier this year, for which he was 13/8 favourite, Auguste Rodin is still considered to be the best of the field for the Derby and is at the top of the market once again. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has trained eight Derby winners so far in his illustrious career, the Deep Impact colt’s form prior to the 2000 Guineas had been most impressive. As a two-year-old, Auguste Rodin jumped easily from a maiden to a Group 2 to a Group 1, improving with each run, and was thus expected to do the same at Newmarket in May this year. Reportedly, the colt suffered interference early on in the race, which affected his result. Similarly to stablemate Savethelastdance in the Oaks, he is reasonably unproven on better going and may find his rivals more competitive on this surface.
Coming to Epsom with the same number of victories as Auguste Rodin is Charlie Appleby’s Military Order. The Frankel colt, who is a full brother to 2021 Derby winner Adayar, won his second start as a two-year-old and has followed up that performance with a further two wins this year at Newbury and Lingfield. Although he has, so far, run in lower grade races than the favourite, Military Order has won on good ground, which Auguste Rodin has not. At this stage of his career, he has racked up more wins than Adayar, having run in similar contests, so could feasibly turn out to be the more talented of the brothers. With both being trained by Charlie Appleby, the family is well known by the trainer which may play to both his and Military Order’s benefit.
Sir Michael Stoute, who was the trainer of last year’s Derby winner, Desert Crown, sends Passenger to this year’s renewal. Sir Michael has been responsible for six Derby winners since 1981 and knows a Derby horse when he sees one. Passenger, who is still fairly unexposed and comes to Epsom having only first seen a racecourse in April this year, won his debut by three lengths and, the following month, finished a good joint third to The Foxes in the Dante at York. He is a colt that we know goes well on good and firmer ground so, if he can get a nice clear run this time, he could prove to be very dangerous to the top two favourites.
