The Derby: The Traders’ view

Ahead of this year’s Derby, we asked Deputy Director of Horse Racing, Jack Shelley, how the markets are shaping up and if there has been anything newsworthy ahead of the latest running of the world’s most famous horse race.

Who has been the biggest ante-post mover?

There have been quite a few big movers given the long-time favourite Luxembourg has failed to make the race. Desert Crown was introduced into the market at 40/1 after his debut win and was well backed in the lead up into the Dante with most of the damage done between 16/1 and 25/1.

Worst result in the ante-post book?

Stone Age is currently the worst result but given the continued strength behind Desert Crown he could soon usurp him.

Has all the money been for the fancied runners or has their been plenty of each-way support for bigger-priced contenders? If so, who?

There has been a good spread of business and it hasn’t been all one-way traffic at the front end of the market by any means. Piz Badile has been very popular and Westover has had his supporters at a big price.

Where does the Derby rank in turnover compared to other big races throughout the year?

The Derby always features in the top 10 races of the year in terms of turnover. Outside Cheltenham and Aintree, it will be the biggest of the year, but the Grand National and a number of flagship races at Cheltenham are generally bigger turnover races.

How does betting interest compare this year to previous ones?

There does seem to be a little bit of extra interest in the race this year with Epsom playing a role in the Platinum Jubilee celebrations and turnover on the Derby has been very healthy

Do you notice any trends in terms of betting patterns?

Frankie Dettori is and always will be popular in races that reach the non-racing public and we do overlay his mounts based upon their price/chances but it’s nothing we are worried about. He tends to ride horses at the front end of the market, so we are generally protected by the price. We would have a bigger problem if he rode a 66/1 chance! Hollie Doyle is the only other Flat jockey that gives us a few problems in terms of really overlaying horses as she tends to ride the bigger priced horses in the Classics.

In the Oaks, is it all about Emily Upjohn for punters?

She has been strong in the market since her reappearance win at Sandown and sadly for bookmakers credible opposition could be thin on the ground with her stablemate Nashwa perhaps the biggest danger

Give us the Oaks/Derby double.

Emily Upjohn looks solid in the Oaks and Nations Pride could continue Charlie Appleby’s good recent record in the Classics by winning the Derby.

And finally, two horses at each-way prices in the two Classics.

At bigger prices, I could see another couple of Appleby horses running well in With The Moonlight (Oaks) and Walk The Stars (Derby).