Jane Mangan’s William Hill blog: Irish Oaks Day Best Bets

William Hill ambassador Jane Mangan is back with her best bets on Irish Oaks Day.

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Curragh, Saturday

We’ll start with the Meadow Court Stakes (2:15pm) for the fillies over a mile and a quarter, where I like the chances of Paddy Twomey’s Moody. He won the race last year with the reopposing One Look. She has Group One form and deserves her place at the head of the betting. I think Moody has improved rapidly since joining from Andre Fabre’s yard. This is her first attempt at Group company, but I believe she has an excellent chance of continuing her upward trajectory and making it four wins in a row.

Next is the Scurry Handicap (2:50pm), which looks a real head-scratcher. I like the chances of Headmaster, who’s drawn in the middle in stall 14. In the last five years, the winning stalls have been 3, 3, 20, 10 and 15, so there doesn’t appear to be any draw bias. William Haggas trained this horse, and he was decent without pulling up any trees. Now under the care of Eddie Lynam, this will be his fourth run for a yard seeking a third win in the race since 2020. He ran well over seven furlongs at Cork last time but showed his best over six furlongs when winning over course and distance in May. Since he arrived at the yard, they’ve been working out what his optimum conditions are, and I think they may just discover that they’re these.

The five-furlong sprint, the Sapphire Stakes (3:25pm), looks a very interesting affair with several British contenders coming over. I like the chances of Rosy Affair, the filly who was second to Flora Of Bermuda at Newmarket before winning the Cecil Frail at Haydock. She has since produced a career-best effort when finishing fourth in the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot. She had the reopposing Jakajaro behind her that day when finishing a length and a quarter behind Mission Central. That form stands up significantly in this company. She’s a five-year-old filly hitting her stride, while Billy Loughnane and George Boughey are enjoying a wonderful campaign. It can get even better here.

The Railway Stakes (4:00pm) has been won by several good horses in the past, including Rock Of Gibraltar, Mastercraftsman and, most recently, True Love last year. However, some good horses get beaten in the race as well. I like the chances of Immortal Guard, who beat Confucius home in the Anglesey Stakes when finishing behind his stable companion. He was a very good third to Carry The Flag prior to that over course and distance, having landed a gamble over the same course and distance on debut. I think he is a horse that hasn’t been overraced, and it might well pay dividends here.

The big race is the Irish Oaks (4:35pm). It’s a race that Aidan O’Brien has won eight times since his first with Alexandrova in 2006, but despite saddling five runners this time around, I don’t believe he has the answer. The race has gone to British or French trainers in 10 of the last 17 renewals since Sariska won in 2009, and I believe that, once again, it will go for export.

I really fancy the chances of Inis Mor on her first attempt over this trip. She’s by Galiway, who is an influence for stamina, out of a Deep Impact mare who was a Group One winner over two miles, so the step up to 12 furlongs could enhance this filly’s credentials. She’s already beaten Earth Shot in the Height of Fashion, she ran a really good race when third to Diamond Necklace in the Prix de Diane, and she has been supplemented for a fee of €50,000. It all makes sense. I think she can outclass her rivals here.