Kevin Stott’s blog: Busy few days in store

Newmarket, Thursday

My first ride of the July Festival is Thunderblue in the July Stakes (2:25pm). He’s one of the bigger prices in the race but he’s a horse that we think plenty of. He had a good run at Goodwood and turned around pretty quickly for his run at Ascot when he dropped back to five furlongs. He was only beaten four lengths and he might have been running a bit below his best after the quick turnaround. Interestingly he ran on the same day as Al Asifah who was also a bit disappointing, and it maybe just came a bit too soon for both horses. He’s been good at home since his run and stepping back up to six furlongs won’t do him any harm whatsoever. There’s a bit of pace in the race which will suit because it will mean we can take a lead and maybe be a bit more effective from the front. I’d like to think he could outrun his odds, naturally it’s a very competitive race with some smart looking horses, but we think Thunderblue is well above average and better than the mark of 94 given to him by the handicapper.

My other ride on Thursday is Ornellaia in the Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (4:10) over six furlongs. This is her debut run and she is bred to stay much further, by Night Of Thunder but out of a Sea The Stars mare who stayed a mile and a half herself, so we can be pretty sure that we’ll see her over further in time. It seems to be a nice enough starting point for her and naturally these Newmarket maidens tend to be competitive with plenty of well-bred horses running. We’re hopeful that she can run well, and she’s shown nice signs at home and like I say this will probably be the minimum trip for her going forward. She’s doing everything nicely at the moment and we’re hopeful for a really nice starting point from a good debut effort.

Newmarket, Friday

My first ride on Friday is Killybegs Warrior in the 1m2f handicap (1:50). He is two from two at the July Course and his best efforts have always come at Newmarket. He’s quite a big price but he’s a horse with plenty of ability who has sneaked down to a fairly competitive mark and the fact that we’re returning to a track he loves is a real positive. He has had a couple of terrible draws to overcome on his last to runs at Haydock and Ascot so I think we can forgive him those efforts, and his run in the Dante wasn’t disgraceful by any means so I think he has an each-way chance and returning to this track is a massive positive for him.

I’ve got Persian Dreamer in the Dutchess Of Cambridge Stakes (2:25) in a race that has really cut up. She bounced back to run a massive race at Ascot in the Albany Stakes when finishing a good fourth, second in her group just behind Soprano, who also runs in this race. She’ll have to try and improve a little bit to beat her.

Obviously she was a winner at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile track first time out and she was very impressive. Any bit of rain that comes will help her chances massively. Ascot was quick enough for her and she’s a filly that probably prefers a bit of juice in the ground. We’re much more positive going forward with her today considering how well she ran at Ascot. It’s fair to say Star Of Mystery looks the one to beat here as she’s been really impressive in her runs so far. She’s a Listed winner over course and distance and ran very impressively last time. On what we’ve seen she’s no doubt the one to beat but I can’t rule out my filly because she’s talented and there’s more to come.

I’m delighted to have landed the ride on Live Your Dream for Saeed bin Suroor in the 1m6f Handicap (3:00pm). He’s a horse who has come back from a mammoth break in tremendous form and he ran a huge race in his comeback at Haydock then improved on that again to finish third in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Ascot where he again had to overcome a pretty terrible draw in stall 18. He’s favourite for this race so I know I’m going in with a really good chance and he’s got a much kinder draw in stall four which is a big positive. He has actually stayed 2m2f in the past so the fact that he’s stepping up to 1m6f is a plus as well. He won this race back in 2021 and everything suggests that he has a massive chance. The trip suits, and coming back to this track and in a race he’s won before and the form that he’s in at the moment is good so I’m really looking forward to riding him and hopefully we can get the job done.

I get the leg up on Dallas Star in the 7f Maiden (4:10pm). He’s had two runs to date, one being at Haydock where he ran a decent third having had to lead. He then went to Ascot and ran in the Chesham Stakes where he was ridden prominently and was only actually beaten two and three-quarter lengths so he ran pretty well and as it turned out he was probably drawn on the wrong side that day, so he didn’t disgrace himself by any means. He will stay further in time and he’s got more experience than a couple of the others. Ultimately, he probably has to improve once again but he might be the type of horse who is better for a bit of cut in the ground and also a bit more time where he can run over further and in nurseries. He is a nice horse and we definitely haven’t seen the best of him yet, experience could just work in our favour here.

It’s a pretty busy day because I then have Maxi Boy for Michael Bell in the Boodles Handicap (4:45pm). He’s another horse who had a bit of time off, but he certainly returned with promise when fourth at Leicester just over a month ago. He was a little bit fresh in the early stages of the race and therefore a little bit keen so hopefully he can relax a bit better and he’ll have stripped that little bit fitter from that race after a mammoth layoff. He comes here with a nice chance in an ultra-competitive race. It’s a pretty big field of 14 and it’s very tricky to try and work out a winner but I definitely think we’re coming in with a chance and if he can build on that last run then he could go well.

My final ride on the day is Good Earth for Michael Herrington in the 5f handicap (5:20pm). He is a horse that’s been in really good form this year, especially since switching back to the turf. He seems to be relishing the stiff five-furlong races and this rising ground could really help him in the final couple of furlongs at Newmarket. He wasn’t disgraced last time at Doncaster but I’m not sure the track and trip totally played into his strengths so the fact that we’re returning to this type of track is a positive. He’s a winner at Beverley which is obviously a good climb he whole way at five furlongs and when he hits the rising ground at Newmarket he could run on really nicely. He’s been rated higher than this previously so remains competitive off a mark of 84, and we’re hopeful for a good run.