Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Fables to upset Juddmonte pair in Dewhurst

Newmarket, Saturday

FLYING HONOURS can justify favouritism in the Newmarket opener today (1.50). This is hardly the most imaginative selection in the world, but he really looked a potential star on his second and third starts before coming unstuck in a silly tactical race here last time. That’s still the best form on offer, and a shade of odds-on at 5/6 doesn’t exaggerate his chance.

HOLLOWAY BOY is another I don’t want to oppose at 9/4 at the front of the market (2.25). The balance of his efforts stand up to close scrutiny, and his trainer is on record beforehand as saying he was short of peak fitness here behind Nostrum. In the circumstances that was a decent run and a small step forward should be good enough. He might not start favourite as Epictetus was popular as soon as betting opened. A bigger danger may come from Exoplanet.

AESOP’S FABLES has to be the value in the Dewhurst (3.00) at around 7/1. Everybody knows my feelings about Nostrum, and I feel he is the talent here, but I’m happy to watch him at his current odds against this calibre of opposition: in short, I think the market overstates his superiority as things stand. The selection can be readily excused a soft ground below par effort in the National Stakes, and it must be a plus that Ryan Moore has won on the two Juddmonte horses at the top of the market, so will have a very good handle on how this race can be won.

ZOFFEE gets the nod each way in the Cesarewitch (3.40) at around 14/1 with Hills paying the six places. The race is so loaded with prominent jumps trainers that this splendidly game horse – a jumper himself, don’t forget – has been somewhat overlooked, despite Frankie Dettori fancying another spin on him after their excellent run over on the July course. His surprisingly progressive form in top handicaps this summer makes him still of great interest off today’s mark, and a little cut in the ground won’t hurt. The pause that refreshes is also a plus as he’s been clearly laid out for this for a few months.

York, Saturday

ALPHA CAPTURE might take a bit of beating in the Rockingham at York (2.05). He’s not a bad price at 11/4 considering the second fav has won a maiden that hasn’t really worked out yet and the next two dangers are well exposed and uncertain to enjoy easy ground. Neither of those charges could be leveled at the selection, whose run in defeat at Doncaster was rock solid – he’ll see this race out best of all.

STAY WELL is the one that interests me in the extended ten furlong handicap (2.40). He was behind Marching Army at Newbury, but did best of those coming from further back in a tempo-led affair. The addition of a hood may help, and he was entitled to need that run. The ground won’t be a problem and he is a fresh enough horse for this stage of the season, so he’s the play at 4/1.

GISBURN is not exactly reliable, but he’s priced accordingly and can go well in the Coral Sprint (3.15). He’s quietly nibbled away at his handicap mark this year, while showing that he’s absolutely no back number granted conditions that suit. And on the evidence of his last run, he may in better form now than all year. He’ll need to be, but he definitely needs this ground, wants a very brisk pace at this trip (which he’ll get), is drawn near some pace, and hit form in the autumn last year. At monster odds of around 28/1, he can surprise a few.