Nick Luck’s William Hill Blog: Conflated value to turn Jonbon form around

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck casts his expert eye over Day Two of the Aintree Grand National Festival.

Aintree, Friday

GIOVINCO is way too big of a price in the opening contest of day two, the Mildmay Novices’ Chase (1.45pm). I think the market is all wrong here, he is a horse that travelled so well for much of the Brown Advisory in behind one of the classiest novices for many a year, Fact To File. I think that Aintree will suit him better, and his yard is hitting its stride so I see him running a huge race. I can see no reason why he is such a big price of 9/1.

OCASTLE DES MOTTES is my selection for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at 5/1. There is a double angle here with Paul Townend in the saddle and a hood on – both should help the horse to settle. If he does settle than he will get home as we know he can travel strongly as shown in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. He is still off a mark of 132 in England, which is still very favourable – an angle which the connections have been trying to exploit since his arrival from France. I think now is the time.

CONFLATED is the value in the Melling Chase (3.30pm) at 11/1. The two U’s make his form look a bit ugly this season, but he has ran a fantastic race behind Galopin Des Champs both times. The third in the Ryanair was also very good and I think the application of cheekpieces will just aid him in travelling a bit better over this shorter distance. This is going to be a test of stamina over the trip anyway, Cheltenham told us that he can handle softer ground okay and, if it dries a bit more, it’ll be more in his favour. On ratings he’s third in here, and I’m not sure Jonbon massively wants this testing two-and-a-half-mile trip, although he is the class horse in the race. Conflated at three times the price has value to turn the form around with Jonbon.

JAMES DU BERLAIS is my confident pick in the Topham Handicap (4.05pm) at 7/1. Paul Townend takes over for the first time. He is a very sound jumper and I don’t think he likes Cheltenham – this track will suit so much better. The ground and trip are also both positives here. I know he is carrying a lot of weight but he is a very classy horse to be running in this.

THE JUKEBOX MAN is the selection for the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle and I can’t see a lot wrong with him. He had an absolutely brilliant run at Cheltenham and should’ve won. I don’t regard this opposition as being a lot stronger than what he faced at Cheltenham, so I will definitely be giving him a big shout again here at 10/3.

TED HASTINGS is the token selection in what looks a very open Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap. I think he ran really well here over two and a half miles on very soft ground in December. I don’t see an issue with dropping down in trip, if anything, it will be a positive. He’s got plenty of flat form and is still rather unexposed over hurdles. He has a very good jockey booked in Danny Gilligan and looks a backable each way price of 18/1.