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Nick Luck

Nick Luck’s ante-post Cheltenham Festival blog: Porter to Floor them all again

2 years ago
| BY News Team

Nick Luck tipped a 16/1 winner in the form of Porlock Bay in his ante-post Cheltenham blog last year, so we’ve asked him to cast an eye of the markets with just over a month until a fabulous four days at Prestbury Park gets underway.

SIR GERHARD – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

With William Hill Non Runner Money Back on all Cheltenham Festival races, I can’t not put this one up at 3/1. Like plenty of these I might be jumping into the wrong race, but if he does end up in the Supreme, I really think he should be about a 7/4 shot. He boasts the single piece of strongest novice hurdle form this season and he did that in a very good time. He’s shown he goes well at the track – something his market rivals haven’t done, while I didn’t think his jumping was too bad at Leopardstown despite his trainer’s reservations. He’s entitled to improve again having had just two starts over hurdles and if he does turn up in the Festival opener, I expect him to take an awful lot of beating.

SAINT SAM Arkle

He might have been beaten by over four lengths in the Irish Arkle, but I thought Saint Sam just about shaped the best in that race, particularly considering how fast he went out in front. Many horses would have fallen out of the telly, but he plugged on admirably for third and I can see him really getting into a rhythm out in front in the Arkle. If he goes the clip he went at Leopardstown he could have plenty of their feet and I think he’s still too big at 8/1.

WALKING ON AIR – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Again, we’re slightly stabbing in the dark as to who will run here, but Nicky Henderson has said this fella will go here and that will do for me. He’s still a 7/1 chance despite the fact plenty of those ahead of him won’t turn up here and that could look a big price if he can back up his debut at Newbury. For a horse having just the second start of his life and his first over hurdles, you had to be taken by the way he did things, particularly in the closing stages. It didn’t look the strongest of novice hurdles, but the second has come out and bolted up by 12 lengths, so there’s perhaps more substance to the form than meets the eye. He’s from a family that has done well at Cheltenham in the past and there’s surely heaps more to come.

REDEMPTION DAY – Champion Bumper

It was hard not to be impressed by Facile Vega at the Dublin Racing Festival and I’m under no illusions he’ll be very tough to beat in the Champion Bumper if in anything like the same sort of form. However, I’m not the sort of man to be backing 4/5 shots in these sort of races and I feel his stablemate Redemption Day has been slightly overlooked at 13/2. He’s related to a Champion Bumper winner and watching his debut victory back, he looks a very fast horse and better ground will surely suit. While Willie Mullins has farmed this race over the years, it’s not always been with his supposed first string, just take Sir Gerhard and Ferny Hollow in the last two running’s as an example of that and I feel he’s not quite as far behind Facile Vega as the betting suggests.

FLOORING PORTER – Stayers’ Hurdle

I totally see why Hills are wary at 3/1 of this horse as he was about as impressive as you can be in a Championship race 12 months ago. The way he jumped at the speed he was going was a real sight to behold and I just don’t see any of his rivals living with him if he repeats that in 2022. It hasn’t been plain sailing since, but excuses can be made for all three runs, particularly last time when it all turned into a bit of a farce at the start. In all honesty I find this race very simple, if Gavin Cromwell can get Flooring Porter out of bed on the right side on the Thursday morning he’ll win.

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