Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Arc Day Preview

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Arc Day from Longchamp, with four tips, including in the big one at 3.20pm.

Sunday, Longchamp

SIMMERING is a viable threat to the highly touted Zarigana in the Marcel Boussac (12.55pm). The favourite may yet prove a superstar, but the form of her Group 3 is only so-so, and she faces a genuine Group One calibre filly in Simmering, whose second to divisional leader Lake Victoria in the Moyglare only looks better now. Another furlong won’t go amiss, and she’s travelled successfully already, when a ready winner of the Calvados.

MISUNDERSTOOD gets the vote in the Lagadere (1.30pm). I’m not wild about Field of Gold’s Solario form nor the form of the stable, while Henri Matisse needs to buck his ideas up in the blinkers. Rashabar is highly respected, but Misunderstood looked very strong when dominating an easy ground Group 3 here, and could get a relatively soft time of it again up front.

DESPERATE HERO looks a right one at a massive price in the Abbaye (2.05pm). He looked a sprinter going places early summer, had a little blip, then came back with a huge effort on the wrong side in the Flying Five. If he outguns Washington Heights for the early lead here, he can get over to the near side rail, a monstrous advantage on this track. He doesn’t have a massive amount to find with the top two on his last run, and could take a bit of pegging back on a surface that he’ll love.

AVENTURE is my pick to win a really open Arc (3.20pm). There’s nothing like a three year old filly with all the weight allowances in this race, and Aventure arguably should have won the Vermeille – and could have done with a slightly more tactically astute ride. Stephane Pasquier – 2 from 2 on the filly – will know how to play this from a very good draw. She is pretty unexposed at a mile and a half, comes from an excellent staying family, and it seems significant that the owners are happy to run her here in preference to the Opera, despite also having favourite Sosie. Los Angeles and Al Riffa can prove best of the rest.